The Morning Call---Goodbye taper?

 

The Morning Call

 

9/3/21

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cryptos-jump-small-caps-pumped-dollar-dumps-1-month-lows

 

            Some context for just how overextended this Market is.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/untethered

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

August nonfarm payrolls rose 235,000 versus forecasts of 750,000.  Goodbye taper?

 

                        International

 

                          July EU retail sales fell 2.3% versus estimates of a rise of 0.1%.

 

The August final Japanese services PMI came in at 42.9 versus 47.4 in July; the composite PMI was 45.5 versus 48.8 in July; the August final Chinese Caixin services PMI was 46.7 versus 54.9 in July; the composite PMI was 47.2 versus 53.1 in July; the August final German services PMI was 60.8 versus expectations of 61.3; the composite PMI was 60.0 versus 60.6; the August final EU services PMI was 59.0 versus 59.7; the composite PMI was 59.0 versus 59.5; the August final  UK services PMI was 55.0 versus 55.5; the composite PMI was 54.8 versus 55.3.

 

                        Other

 

                          August vehicle sales declined.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/09/august-vehicles-sales-decreased-to-1306.html

           

                          Morgan Stanley revises its Q3 GDP forecast down dramatically.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-nukes-its-q3-gdp-forecast-now-sees-just-29-growth-down-65

 

            The Fed

 

              European bond investors appear poised for a decline in ECB QE.

              https://www.ft.com/content/d0382cfc-2c97-4d6d-876a-fd7c70a8aa2a

 

            The coronavirus

 

This article examines the mistakes made by the economics profession in evaluating the costs of the lockdown.  (must read)

              https://brownstone.org/articles/the-silence-of-economists-about-lockdowns/

 

    Bottom line.

 

            August dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/09/dividends-by-numbers-in-august-2021.html#.YTEIJI5KiUk

 

            Bill Gross says that bonds are investment garbage.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-01/bill-gross-says-bonds-are-investment-garbage-just-like-cash?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

           

            A bull notices that the yield on the S&P is at a 20 year low.

            https://ritholtz.com/2021/09/spxdiv-yield-20yearlows/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            There is a problem in the upper echelons of our military.

            https://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2021/09/02/theres-a-problem-in-the-upper-reaches-of-our-military-n2595184

 

 

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