The Morning Call--The delta variant appears to have peaked

 

The Morning Call

 

9/2/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rally-fizzles-banks-and-energy-dump-while-fangs-hit-all-time-high-cryptos-soar

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims were 340,000 versus expectations of 345,000.

 

Q2 nonfarm productivity was reported at +2.1% versus forecasts of +2.4%; unit labor costs were up 1.3% versus +0.9%.

 

The July trade balance was -$70 billion versus projections of +$71 billion.

 

                          July construction spending was up 0.3% versus estimates of +0.2%

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/09/construction-spending-increased-03-in.html

 

                          The August manufacturing PMI came in at 61.1 versus predictions of 61.2.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/09/01/august-markit-manufacturing-improvement-in-operating-conditions

 

                          The August ISM manufacturing index was 59.9 versus consensus of 58.6.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/09/01/august-ism-manufacturing-index-continued-struggle-to-meet-heightened-demand

 

                        International

 

                          July EU PPI was +2.3% versus expectations of +1.1%.

 

                        Other

 

                          July median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/09/median-household-income-in-july-2021.html#.YS-9hI5KiUk

 

                          OPEC+ raises 2022 oil demand forecast.

                          https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/01/opec-raises-2022-oil-demand-growth-forecast.html

 

                          Bureaucrats are bad for the economy.

                          https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/the-british-chip-industry-benefits-from-the-cowperthwaite-approach

 

            The Fed

 

With long term interest rates near historic lows, why is the Fed taking duration risk?

              http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/the-fed-takes-duration-risk/

 

            Inflation

 

               Housing prices and the M2 surge.

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2021/08/home-prices-and-m2-surge.html

 

            The coronavirus

 

 Stats show that cases, hospitalizations and deaths from the delta variant appear to have peaked. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/covid-hospital-admissions-fall-first-time-june-latest-sign-delta-wave-has-peaked

 

More data on the delta variant: it appears more contagious because it is hammering the young (unvaccinated);  the old guys, not so much.  And so, the reason it appears less deadly is because the young are stronger, healthier, etc. and, therefore, can recover at a higher rate than the old guys.

             https://theweek.com/coronavirus/1004325/the-simplest-explanation-for-delta?utm_campaign=afternoon_newsletter_20210831&utm_source=afternoon_newsletter&utm_medium=email&refid=10E92AB193F4857411E414DAFABEE91E

 

Another study shows that individuals previously infected with covid are 27 times more resistant to the delta variant than those that have been vaccinated.

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/harvard-epidemiologist-says-case-covid-vaccine-passports-was-just-demolished

 

 

                        Afghanistan

 

I have been trying to keep the emotion out of my comments/links on Afghanistan; but this is too much.  We left Americans at the gates of the Kabul airport and knew it.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/we-are-fking-abandoning-american-citizens-says-livid-army-colonel-leaked-afghanistan

 

              Thoughts on the US’s post-Afghanistan global power relations.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-u-s-withdrawal-china-russia-power-relations-11630421715

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Hormel Foods (NYSE:HRL): FQ3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.39 in-line; GAAP EPS of $0.32 misses by $0.07.

Revenue of $2.86B (+20.2% Y/Y) beats by $130M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Thursday morning wisdom.

            https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/rules-truths-beliefs/

           

 

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