Wednesday, September 29, 2021

The Morning Call---Stocks, the long bond and the dollar at critical technical levels

 

The Morning Call

 

9/29/21

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dangerous-jerome-doomsaying-janet-spark-bond-stock-bullion-bitcoin-battering

 

To add to the above, (1) the S&P, after a one stay above the downtrend off its 9/2 all-time high, is back below it and near to challenging its 100 DMA,

 

(2) the long bond is now below [a] the lower boundary of its very short term trading range {if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to a downtrend}, [b] its 100 DMA {if it remains there through the close on Thursday, it will revert to resistance} and [c] its 200 DMA {if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will revert to resistance}and

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/c7x7le4cw2

 

(3) the dollar made a ten month high yesterday. 

 

In short, important technical support levels are being tested across multiple markets.

 

            October has a history of big swings.

            https://quantifiableedges.com/october-has-a-history-of-big-swings/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.1% while purchase applications were down 1.0%.

 

September consumer confidence came in at 109.3 versus consensus of 114.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/09/28/consumer-confidence-down-again-in-september

 

The September Richmond Fed manufacturing index was reported at -3 versus +9 recorded in August.

 

                        International

 

                          August UK mortgage approvals were 74,500 versus estimates of 73,000.

 

The September EU consumer confidence index was -4, in line; the economic sentiment index was 117.8 versus 116.9; the industrial sentiment index was 14.1 versus 12.5; the services sentiment index was 15.1 versus 15.5.

 

                        Other

 

                          The trend in new home sales.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/09/falling-trend-for-new-home-sales.html#.YVNZ2rhKiUk

 

                          Regional Fed bank manufacturing indices overview.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/09/28/september-regional-fed-manufacturing-overview

 

                          Environmental demands and energy prices.

                          https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-bet-environmental-fears-will-crunch-commodity-supply-lifting-prices-11632350186?st=n6mpufey2itn7qx&reflink=desktopwebshare_linkedin

 

                          Also.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-27/oil-holds-above-75-a-barrel-as-energy-crunch-rattles-markets?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                         And power crisis deepens in Europe and Asia.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/power-crisis-deepens-asia-and-europe-what-it-means-shipping

 

                                Evergrande to default on second offshore bond issue.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/evergrande-default-second-offshore-bond-after-15-billion-bank-stake-sale

 

            The Fed

 

              Are we entering a new global tightening cycle?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Covid versus Spanish flu stats.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2021/09/covid-vs-spanish-flu-chart.html

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Estimating future stock returns.

            https://alephblog.com/2021/09/25/estimating-future-stock-returns-june-2021-update/

 

            The delusion of control.

            https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/the-control-delusion/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The enduring relevance of Mises/Hayek’s critique of socialism.

            https://www.aier.org/article/the-enduring-relevance-of-mises-and-hayeks-critique-of-socialism/

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2021/09/quotation-of-the-day-3661.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

 

 

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