The Morning Call--A successful test

 

The Morning Call

 

12/1/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.  Notably, the Dow and S&P tested their all-time high and bounced off that level, confirming the break above it.  That said, this successful challenge has been half hearted at best, begging the question,  is latest up move is a false flag?  Follow through.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-stocks-soar-best-month-ever-bitcoin-hits-record-high

 

            Investors go ‘all in’ without a net.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/11/30/technically-speaking-investors-go-all-in-without-a-net

 

            Update on margin debt.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/30/margin-debt-and-the-market-up-0-8-in-october

 

            Huge short position in oil.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/oil-facing-huge-short-squeeze-hfts-build-470mm-barrel-short-position

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          October pending home sales fell 1.1% versus projections of +1.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/30/pending-home-sales-dip-in-october

 

                          The November Chicago PMI came in at 58.2 versus consensus of 59.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/30/chicago-pmi-eased-in-november

 

The November Dallas Fed manufacturing index was reported at 12 versus estimates of 7.0

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/30/november-dallas-fed-manufacturing-outlook-continues-expansion

 

                        International

 

October Japanese unemployment  was 3.1%, in line; the November final manufacturing PMI was 49.0 versus 48.3; Q3 YoY capital spending fell 10.6% versus -3.6%.

 

The final Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 54.0 versus expectations of 53.5.

 

The November final German manufacturing PMI came in at 57.8 versus predictions of 57.9; November unemployment was 6.1% versus 6.3%.

 

The November EU final manufacturing PMI was reported at 53.8 versus forecasts of 53.6; the November flash CPI was -0.3% versus -0.2%.

 

 

                        Other

 

                          Europe’s looming cash crunch.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/39a6c0f4-cc28-4173-b7c4-05c65d3baacb

 

                          OPEC agrees to extend production cuts if allies agree.

                          https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec/opec-to-discuss-extending-oil-cuts-or-gradually-raising-output-sources-say-idUSKBN28A0X3

 

                          Update on seven high frequency economic indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/11/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for_30.html

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Lessons from Iceland.

              https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03284-3

 

            China

 

              Are they lying about the economy---again?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beijing-unexpectedly-injects-30-billion-financial-system-sparking-doubts-about-true-state

 

            Bottom line.

 

              Inflation believers playing the long game.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-30/inflation-believers-playing-long-game-are-winning-as-they-wait?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              A vaccine won’t help ‘value’ investments.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/vaccine-wont-cure-20-year-widow-maker-trade

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS): FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.45 beats by C$0.20; GAAP EPS of C$1.42.

Revenue of C$7.51B (-5.8% Y/Y) misses by C$100M.

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) declares CAD 0.90/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            What if plants have personalities?

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-11-21/do-plants-have-personalities-this-botanist-is-looking-to-prove-they-do?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Sun ejects biggest solar flare in years.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/biggest-solar-flare-strikes-earth-years-ahead-super-active-solar-cycle

 

 

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