Thursday, December 17, 2020

The Morning Call--QEInfinity but not Forever

 

The Morning Call

 

12/17/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-crypto-jump-dollar-dumps-fed-flop-washington-slop

 

            Technicals are near the breaking point.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/breaking-point

 

What a Santa Claus rally would tell you about the stock market performance in 2021.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-what-a-santa-claus-rally-would-tell-you-about-stock-market-performance-in-2021-11607976675?mod=home-page

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                          

                           Weekly jobless claims were up 885,000 versus expectations of 800,000. 

                           https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-surge-highest-almost-4-months

                                   

                          October business inventories rose 0.7%, in line.

 

November housing starts were up 1.2% versus consensus of unchanged; building permits were up 6.2% versus unchanged.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/despite-homebuilder-sentiment-slip-permits-soar-14-year-highs-renter-nation

 

The December housing market index came in at 86 versus estimates of 88.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/12/16/nahb-housing-market-index-second-highest-reading-despite-decline

 

The December flash manufacturing PMI was 56.5 versus predictions of 55.7; the services PMI was 55.3 versus 55.9; the composite PMI was 55.7 versus 57.0.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-pmis-slow-early-december-data-services-slump-prices-soar

 

The December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was reported at 11.1 versus forecasts of 20.0.

 

                        International

 

                          November EU CPI came in at -0.3%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          The Treasury yield curve continues to steepen.

                          http://www.capitalspectator.com/us-treasury-yield-curve-steepens-to-3-year-high/

                       

                          Architecture billings were down in November.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/12/aia-architecture-billings-lose-ground.html

 

            The Fed

 

The FOMC wrapped up its December meeting yesterday.  In its official statement, it (1) sounded slightly more upbeat about the economy, (2) left rates unchanged, (3) left the current magnitude of QE bond purchases unchanged, (4) along with its liquidity swap and repurchase agreements with other central banks.  However, it did make one alteration in its language---adding the caveat that QE would continue until there is substantial improvement in the economy.  In other words, it is now QEInfinity but not Forever.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fomc-3

 

              The Bank of England left rates and bond buying program unchanged.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-england-leaves-rates-asset-purchases-hold-ahead-brexit-conlcusion

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Did the coronavirus safety measures kill the flu season?

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-15/what-if-covid-19-measures-killed-flu-season?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Pfizer closely monitoring worker after severe adverse reaction to vaccine.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/pfizer-closely-monitoring-alaska-health-worker-after-serious-adverse-reaction-vaccine

 

            China

 

              China retrenches ‘belt and road’ initiative.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/12/china-retrenches-on-belt-and-road-initiative-as-defaults-rise.html

 

            Bottom line.  How one investor is managing the ‘bubble’.

                        https://www.upslopecapital.com/blog/moon2020

 

            There is no shame in losing money in a stock.

            https://www.safalniveshak.com/lost-money-on-stocks-have-no-shame/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

General Mills (NYSE:GIS): FQ2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.06 beats by $0.09; GAAP EPS of $1.11 beats by $0.13.

Revenue of $4.72B (+6.8% Y/Y) beats by $70M.

 

Accenture (NYSE:ACN): FQ1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.17 beats by $0.12; GAAP EPS of $2.32 beats by $0.26.

Revenue of $11.76B (+3.5% Y/Y) beats by $400M.

Accenture (NYSE:ACN) declares $0.88/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Altria (NYSE:MO) declares $0.86/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM) declares $0.75/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

 

           

 

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