The Morning Call--Be sure that your greed is under control

The Morning Call

 

12/16/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-stimulus-hope-smart-money-dollar-puke

 

            The latest Fund Manager Survey.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-wall-street-euphoria-triggers-first-bofa-sell-signal-february-2020

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                           

Weekly mortgage applications rose 1.1% while purchase applications were up 1.8%.

 

                            Month to date retail sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.

 

November industrial production rose 0.4% versus forecasts of up 0.3%; capacity utilization was 73.3% versus 72.9%.

                            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/12/15/the-big-four-industrial-production-increase-in-november

                                                       

November retail sales fell 1.1% versus projections of -0.3%; ex autos, they were down 0.9% versus +0.1%.

                                     https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-disappoint-tumble-most-april

 

                        International

 

The October EU trade balance was E30.0 billion versus expectations of E28.0 billion; construction output fell 1.4% versus +0.8%; the December flash manufacturing PMI was 55.5 versus 53.0; the services PMI was 47.3 versus 41.0; the composite PMI was 49.8 versus 45.8.

 

The November Japanese trade balance was Y366.8 billion versus predictions of Y529.0 billion; the December flash manufacturing PMI was 49.7 versus 50.0; the services PMI was 47.2 versus 48.5; the composite PMI was 48.0 versus 49.0.

 

November UK CPI was -0.1% versus estimates of +0.1%; PPI was 0 versus +0.4%; the December flash manufacturing PMI was 57.3 versus 55.0; the services PMI was 49.9 versus 50.5; the composite PMI was 50.7 versus 51.0.

 

The November German flash manufacturing PMI was 58.6 versus consensus of 56.4; the service PMI was 52.5 versus 50.4; the composite PMI was 52.5 versus 50.4

 

                        Other

                        

 We are richer than ever.  So says my favorite optimist.  But it is only because financial asset prices are inflated.  As proof, I offer you chart #7 in this piece.  Notice that the S&P is almost touching the upper boundary of its long term uptrend.  Notice also what historically has happened after following such an occurrence.

                           http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/12/were-richer-than-ever.html

 

                          The only fair trade is free trade.

                              https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/just-to-remind-the-only-fair-trade-is-free-trade

 

                          Spending breakdown of US households.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/12/the-consumer-spending-of-american.html#.X9kLrNhKiM8

 

                          Global oil refining crisis will worsen this winter.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/global-oil-refinery-crisis-will-worsen-winter

 

            Central Banks

 

              The ECB’s latest mistake.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ecbs-latest-big-mistake

 

            The coronavirus

 

              This is a must read analysis of the Pfizer vaccine study.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/12/an-internal-medicine-doctor-and-his-peers-read-the-pfizer-vaccine-study-and-see-red-flags.html

 

            China

 

              Trade with China roars.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/14/business/economy/us-china-trade-covid.html

 

              Bank of China makes record liquidity injection.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-injects-record-950-billion-yuan-medium-term-liquidity-after-bond-defaults

 

            Bottom line.  Be sure you have your greed under control.

                        https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/12/15/the-most-powerful-motivator/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN) declares $0.28/share quarterly dividend, 3.7% increase from prior dividend of $0.27.

Goldman upgrades Exxon.

Exxon upgraded at Goldman in second Buy rating this week (NYSE:XOM) | Seeking Alpha

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

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