The Morning Call---Inflation expectations up. Will hard data follow?

 

The Morning Call

 

12/11/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-black-gold-bid-stocks-skid-negative-nattering-nabobs-battle-new-issue-nirvana

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The November budget deficit was $145 billion versus estimates of $200 billion.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-starts-fiscal-2021-largest-two-month-budget-deficit-record

 

November PPI rose 0.1% versus expectations of up 0.2%; core PPI was up    0.1% versus +0.2%.

                                        

 

                        International

 

November YoY Chinese vehicle sales were up 12.6% versus consensus of up 11.5%.

 

November German CPI increased 0.8%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Hotel occupancy down 38% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/12/hotels-occupancy-rate-declined-379-year.html

           

                          Household net worth up $3.8 trillion in Q3.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/12/feds-flow-of-funds-household-net-worth.html

 

                                  Lumber prices shooting up again.

                          https://www.axios.com/lumber-market-housing-demand-82ee55a0-24fd-4561-a92d-2dcc6b7ea366.html

 

                                  Five charts make the case for higher commodity prices.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/12/09/five-charts-that-make-the-case-for-a-bull-market-in-commodities

 

                                                  Johnson says Brexit deal may not happen.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-eu-impose-emergency-plans-prevent-economic-chaos-should-brexit-talks-fail

 

            The coronavirus

 

              The pandemic and productivity.

              https://www.aei.org/economics/of-pandemics-and-productivity/

 

              The pandemic public debt dilemma.

              https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/pandemic-spending-debt-dilemma-by-michael-spence-and-danny-leipziger-2020-12

 

            China

 

              Update on US/China trade numbers.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/12/us-china-trade-soared-above-pandemic.html#.X9Jy1dhKiM8

 

 

            Bottom line.  Treasury market expects higher inflation.  Will hard data follow?

                        http://www.capitalspectator.com/treasury-market-expects-higher-inflation-will-hard-data-follow/

 

              Commercial real estate market faces significant headwinds.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/work-home-threatens-commercial-real-estate-valuations

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL): FQ2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.06 beats by $0.06; GAAP EPS of $0.80 beats by $0.04.

Revenue of $9.8B (+2.0% Y/Y) beats by $20M.

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) declares $0.24/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

 

            Corporations and civil disobedience.

            http://pointsandfigures.com/2020/12/09/corporations-and-civil-disobedience/

           

            The looming problem with the ‘on demand’ economy.

            https://www.ft.com/content/5a817da3-c55f-4b6f-8375-6c18db0406f2

 

            Geomagnetic storm to dazzle the night sky.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-coming-geomagnetic-storm-dazzle-night-sky

 

Quote of the day.

Bonus Quotation of the Day... - Cafe Hayek

 

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