Friday, December 4, 2020

The Morning Call--Down dollar, up stocks

The Morning Call

 

12/4/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.  The long bond bounced back above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, negating Wednesday’s break.  So, for the moment, the decline in price (rise in yield) has been halted (stalled?).  On the other hand, the dollar got hammered again, resetting its short term trading range to a downtrend.  In addition, if it remains below the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend though the close today, it will reset that trend to a trading range.  That is good for stocks especially when the long bond yield is only inching higher.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-gold-stocks-bid-stimulus-hope-sparks-dollar-dump

 

            More potential downward pressure on bond prices.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quants-warn-ctas-will-puke-if-10y-yield-hits-102-sparking-liquidation-cascade

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

 The October trade balance was -$63.1 billion versus    predictions of -$64.8 billion.

 

November nonfarm payrolls rose 245,000 versus forecasts of 469,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/november-payrolls-huge-miss-just-245k-jobs-added-unemployment-rate-67

 

The November final services PMI came in at 58.4 versus expectations of 57.7; the composite PMI was 58.6 versus 57.9.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/12/03/november-markit-services-pmi-sharpest-increase-in-output-new-biz-since-march-2015

 

The November ISM nonmanufacturing index was reported at 55.9 versus estimates of 56.0.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/12/03/ism-services-slight-pullback-in-november

 

                        International

 

                          October German factory orders rose 2.9% versus consensus of +1.5%.

 

The November EU construction PMI was reported at 45.6 versus projections of 41.5; the German construction PMI was 45.6 versus 42.5; the UK construction PMI was 54.7 versus 52.0.

 

November UK YoY new car sales fell 27.4% versus forecasts of -24.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Is the reflation trade for real?

                          http://www.capitalspectator.com/does-the-reflation-trade-have-legs/

 

                          European corporate zombification becomes scarier.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/da175a86-17ad-44bf-9237-db8d4708fb21

                          

                           And it is no different in the US.

                           https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/zombies-are-amateurs-negative-ebitda-vampires-are-rampage

 

                          Transportation capacity tightens further.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/transportation-capacity-tightens-further-pricing-climbs-higher

 

            China

 

              China is an increasing threat to our national security.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-biggest-threat-national-security-and-has-been-conducting-super-soldier

 

            Bottom line.

 

              November dividends by the numbers.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/12/dividends-by-numbers-in-november-2020.html#.X8k7KWhKiM8

 

              Creating alpha.

              https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1phwnq5888jf2/Why-Modern-Finance-Is-Ruining-the-World

 

  The latest from John Mauldin---read it only if you want to get depressed.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/mauldin-was-all-predicted-10-years-ago

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW) declares $0.51/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Three charitable giving strategies that will improve your portfolio.

            https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1012121/3-charitable-giving-strategies-that-can-also-improve-your-portfolio

 

            Why does bitcoin have value?

            https://www.aier.org/article/why-does-bitcoin-have-value/

 

 

Nominees for the wildlife photographer of the year.

https://digg.com/2020/wildlife-photographer-of-the-years-peoples-choice-award

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 


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