The Morning Call
6/19/20
The
Market
Technical
The Averages (26080, 3115) yawned their way through trading
yesterday. They see sawed back and forth
across the flatline, ended mixed (Dow down, S&P up) on very low volume and
remained out of sync on their 200 DMA’s. Meanwhile, those ‘island tops’ will
continue to weigh on the downside.
Despite the recent
short term break in upside momentum, I am sticking with my assumption that the
Market’s bias is to the upside at least until the Averages revert their DMA to
resistance.
Contrary to the
media narrative and some anecdotal evidence, this survey shows that individuals
are not that positive on owning equities.
Gold was down and
the long bond up. But both continue to
attempt to re-establish upside momentum.
The dollar was up for the fifth time in six days. While this is a hopeful sign of potential
technical improvement, it faces huge overhead resistance where both of its DMA’s
as well as the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend are all
converging at approximately the same level.
Thursday in the charts.
Fundamental
Headlines
Yesterday’s
dataflow was slightly upbeat---again. The June leading economic indicators
and the June Philly Fed index were better than anticipated while weekly jobless
claims again came in above forecast.
The recession low
may be behind us but what is next?
Nothing
overseas.
The
coronavirus
Hospitalization
data shows no sign of a second wave.
The
Fed
In the latest
liquidity flood, the ECB hands out E1.3 trillion in negative yielding bonds.
China
China pledges to
step up Phase One US imports.
More detail on the
China/India border clash.
Bottom line. yesterday was relatively quiet on the news
front. The big item being the ECB
following the Fed’s lead in QEInfinity/Forever---the obvious importance of
which is to keep the tank full to fuel further advances in securities’ prices. That is the theme. That keeps the bias in the Market to the
upside.
How important (accurate)
are the numbers?
Subscriber Alert
Lear Corp (LEA)
cut its dividend. Accordingly, it is
being Removed from the Dividend Growth Universe and the Dividend Growth
Portfolio is Selling its position on the open.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The
June leading economic indicators rose 2.8% versus forecasts of up 2.3%
The May trade
balance was -$104.2 billion versus estimates of -$103.0 billion.
International
May
German PPI was -0.4% versus consensus of -0.3%.
May
UK retail sales were up 12.0 % versus expectations of up 5.7%; ex fuel, they
were up 10.2% versus up 4.5%.
Other
Hotel
occupancy down 43% YoY.
Mortgage
rates tumble to all-time low.
Italy
once again on the worry list.
EU
car sales crash 57% in May.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/eu-car-sales-crash-57-may-europe-grapples-massive-inventory-glut
What
I am reading today
Hemingway
and the bull fight.
The
intelligence of earthworms.
How cultural revolutions
die.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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