Friday, June 26, 2020

The Morning Call--More help for the banks---like they need it.

The Morning Call


The Market

The Averages  (25745, 3083) had a roller coaster day, but ended nicely to the upside.  However, they (1) remain out of sync on their 200 DMA’s [though intraday, the S&P challenged its 200 DMA but bounced to stay above it---that is a positive], (2) are in very short term downtrends and (3) still have those ‘island tops’ weighing on them.

The short term the technical picture remains shaky; but for the moment, I am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias is to the upside---at least until/unless the Averages revert their DMA’s to resistance.

            The Market begins to internalize reality.

Gold was off again fractionally again, but remained above its prior (before Tuesday’s) seven year high.  The long bond was up for a second day, but still has more work to do to overcome the struggle to break out of its month long soft spell.  The dollar was also up again and is close to resetting last week’s uptrend.

            Thursday in the charts.



            The economy

The economic releases yesterday were weighed to the plus side. The final Q1 corporate profits, June Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, May durable goods orders and May wholesale inventories were ahead of expectations; weekly jobless claims and the final Q1 price index were disappointing; and final Q1 GDP growth was in line.

            So much for the ‘V’ recovery.

            Overseas, the April Japanese leading economic indicators and July German consumer confidence were better than anticipated.

            Historic decline in April world trade volumes.

            The coronavirus

            ***overnight update.

            Why re-opening is not enough to save the economy.
            Coronavirus death rates continue to decline.

            Not so in Arizona.

            The Fed

            The Fed announced the results of its latest stress test.  Two important takeaways:

(1)   for the third quarter, it suspended bank stock buybacks and capped the banks’ ability to pay dividends---the exact impact on each bank will not be known until Monday when the banks will report their individual results,

(2)   it will require the banks to submit a second stress test later in the year incorporating the latest data on the coronavirus pandemic.

The full press release.

In another development, the FDIC eased the restrictions of the Volcker Rule.  In an interview on CNBC, Sheila Bair, former head of the FDIC, said that the net effect is to lower banks’ capital base.  As you probably remember, the regulators allowing banks to increase their balance sheet leverage is one of the major causes of the 2008/2009 financial crisis.  To be sure, this easing still leaves the banking system’s capital basis considerably higher than before that financial crisis.  However, adding leverage to the financial system when the Fed has drastically increased the leverage of its own balance sheet, just serves to blow the bubble that much larger.

            Bottom line.  the financial system ruled the headlines yesterday.  The FDIC allowing banks to increase the leverage on their balance sheet ups the liquidity in the system, i.e. provides yet more money with which to misallocate and misprice assets.  That, of course, is great news for stocks. 

            The Fed’s actions, while more responsible than the FDIC’s, had the effect of maximizing the banks’ capital (lending capacity) which is also a plus for the Market.

            More on valuations.

Still more.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Nike (NYSE:NKE): Q4 GAAP EPS of -$0.51 misses by $0.54.
Revenue of $6.31B (-38.0% Y/Y) misses by $950M.


   This Week’s Data


May personal income fell 4.2% versus forecasts of down 6.0%; personal spending rose 8.2 versus +9.0%.

The June Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at 2 versus estimates of -8.


            June Japanese YoY CPI increased 0.3% versus expectations of up 0.6%; core CPI was up 0.2%, in line.


            The June hotel occupancy rate down over 41%.
What I am reading today

            Saharan dust storm to raise air pollution in US to dangerous levels.

            Scientists have linked volcano eruptions to periods of political instability.

            Time to take back your ownership.

            The most important social security chart that you will ever see.

Visit Investing for Survival’s website ( to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

No comments:

Post a Comment