The Morning Call
6/18/20
The
Market
Technical
The Averages (26119, 3113) backed off yesterday but on
very low volume and a decline in the VIX (should be up on a down stock day).
The Dow ended back below its 200 DMA (leaving it as resistance); however, the S&P is well
above its 200 DMA. That leaves the indices
out of sync; meaning that they will be directionless until this anomaly is
resolved. Meanwhile, those ‘island tops’
will continue to weigh on the downside.
A preview of this
Friday’s option expiration.
Despite this short
term break in upside momentum, I am sticking with my assumption that the
Market’s bias is to the upside until the Averages revert their DMA to
resistance.
Gold, the long bond
and the dollar were all up fractionally, leaving their collective pin action confusing
and, hence, of little economic or technical informational value.
Wednesday in the
charts.
Fundamental
Headlines
Yesterday’s
stats were mixed. Weekly mortgage and purchase applications rose with May
housing starts tumbling but building permits advancing.
The myth of the ‘V’
shaped recovery.
The
coronavirus
***overnight
update.
This changes
everything? Not so much.
Why
government lockdowns should end.
Coronavirus spending. Rich versus poor.
The
Fed
The Fed can’t
revive the dead, but it can delay recovery.
Jay’s market.
***overnight, Bank of
England lowers size of QE purchases.
Fiscal
policy
GOP senators balk
at Trump’s $1 trillion infrastructure proposal.
Bottom line. in Powell’s second day of congressional
testimony, he again did not disappoint, not only filling it with QEInfinity
promises but promises that those promises with be us for the foreseeable future
(QEForever) though he qualifies as meaning ‘at least until there is a
coronavirus vaccine’. Well, if history
is any guide, when we do get a vaccine, the Fed will figure out another reason
to keep pumping up the volume. And as
you know, I believe the force of that liquidity injection will continue to provide
an upside bias to equity prices until---------I have no idea. But something that can’t go on forever, won’t. In the meantime, I will Sell a portion of any
stock that reaches its Sell Half Price; and Buy any stock that enters its Buy
Value Range, like occurred in March. But
above all, I will retain a sizeable cash position and my position in gold.
The latest from
Jeremy Grantham.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investing-legend-jeremy-grantham-amazed-unprecedented-stock-bubble
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
Weekly
jobless claims rose 1,580,000 versus expectations of up 1,300,000.
The
June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 27.5 versus estimates of -23.0.
International
Other
The
world rises out of extreme poverty.
What
I am reading today
A look at the hypersonic missile
systems of the US.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment