The Morning Call
6/29/20
The
Market
Technical
Last week was a
rough one for the S&P. On Wednesday,
it established a new very short term downtrend.
Then on Friday, it broke below its 200 DMA (now support). Of course, that break won’t be confirmed
until the close on Wednesday. Also, as
you can see, it has unsuccessfully challenged its MA twice---on 6/11 and again
on last Thursday. So, there is clearly major support at this level On the other hand, the Dow has already
reverted its 200 DMA to resistance. That
said, until both indices successfully challenge their 100 DMA’s, I think the
bias in stock prices is to the upside.
The long bond finally
looks like it has broken out of its two month funk. Of course, it still needs to push above that
4/21 high to really cement a firm short term uptrend. Meanwhile, the long term technical picture has
remained reasonably solid.
On Friday, GLD
traded back to Tuesday’s seven year high.
So, its chart remains strong both on a short and long term basis. The assumption has to be that gold’s price is
going higher.
The dollar’s chart continues to be
the worst of the lot. There is a touch
of good news---it tested the lower boundary of its short term trading range
bounced and then made a higher low.
Still if investors are coming to believe that the economy is weakening
again, the gold and bonds up and the dollar down would reflect that scenario.
The VIX pin action
is really surprising to me. On Friday’s
700+ point down day in the Dow, the VIX’s performance was remarkedly docile. That suggests that investors are not as
alarmed as stocks would indicate. This
could possibly be explained by either the Robinhood day traders remaining
active in options markets or the FAANG stocks accounting for a disproportionate
share of Friday’s price decline.
Whatever the reason, this is something to watch as hint for Market
direction.
Fundamental
Headlines
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
International
May
UK consumer credit fell L4.59 billion versus estimates of -L2.5 billion.
June
EU economic sentiment was reported at 75.7 versus forecasts of 80.0; consumer
confidence was 14.7, in line; industrial sentiment was -21.7 versus -20.0;
servicers sentiment was -35.6 versus -20.0.
June
German inflation was 0.7% versus expectations of 0.4%.
Other
Global
trade recovery could be impacted by numerous disputes.
Update
on the oil market.
What
I am reading today
I
hate it when this happens.
The Kennedy assassination.
Part 2
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment