Wednesday, June 17, 2020

The Morning Call--How much better can the news flow get?

The Morning Call


The Market

The Averages  (26289, 3124) made a strong follow through from Monday’s huge upside turnaround.  The Dow managed to close above the lower boundary of its recently voided very short term uptrend; however, I am not re-establishing it because the S&P is still well short of its comparable level.  The Dow also ended right its 200 DMA (now resistance).  The bad news is that neither of the indices has reached a level that would challenge those ‘island tops’.

So at the moment, the Averages are pinned between the gaps in the ‘island top’ on the upside and their DMA’s on the downside.  But despite the recent erratic pin action, I am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias is to the upside, questionable though it may be. 

A sense of confusion versus a battle of wills.

Gold declined again.  While its long term technical picture remains solid, it continues to struggle to reestablish upside momentum.  The long bond was down big, fading its attempt to regain upside momentum.  The dollar also declined, keeping its chart the ugliest of the lot.  Their collective pin action yesterday was confusing and, hence, of little economic or technical informational value.

            Tuesday in the charts.



            Yesterday’s economic data was weighed slightly to the positive side.  Month to date retail chain store sales, May retail sales (primary indicator) and the June housing index were better than anticipated while April business inventories and May industrial production (primary indicator) were disappointing.

Update on big four economic indicators.

            Overseas, June EU and German economic sentiment along with April UK unemployment were ahead of forecast; May German CPI was in line.

       The coronavirus

            ***overnight update.

            The skeptics were right.

            Millions of jobs are not coming back.

            Study shows steroid effective against advanced coronavirus.

       The Fed

            The great stock market enabler.

            How far will the Fed let stocks rally before it is too much?

            A little more detail on the Fed’s corporate bond buying program.


            China/India border tensions heats up.

       Bottom line.  A partial fix for the coronavirus, the Fed promising that QEInfinity is also QEForever, a $1 trillion infrastructure bill.  What’s not to like?  I am not sure the news flow can get much better.  On the other hand, (1) we know that there is plenty of bad news ahead, not the least of which is corporate earnings, as the aftermath of the coronavirus lockdown becomes manifest yet (2) equities are fully pricing in yesterday’s headlines.

            I continue to believe that stock prices are heading higher as long as the Fed pumps liquidity into the financial system.  But valuations are becoming extraordinarily stretched.  Something is going to trigger mean reversion.  I do not know what, why or when; but I would not be chasing stock prices higher and I would continue to take profits when a holding trades into its Sell Half Range.  In the meantime, lay back and enjoy it,

            Estimating future stock returns.  (Note. There are plenty of similar type analysis that are far less optimistic.)
            Is the worst in dividend cuts behind us?

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.20 beats by $0.05; GAAP EPS of $0.99 beats by $0.04.
Revenue of $10.44B (-6.3% Y/Y) misses by $240M.
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) declares $0.24/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.       


   This Week’s Data


            Month to date retail chain store sales declined but at a slower pace than in the prior week.

            Weekly mortgage applications rose 8.0% and purchase applications were up 3.5%.

            April business inventories declined 1.3% versus forecasts of -0.8%.

            May industrial production rose 1.4% versus estimates of +2.9%; capacity utilization was 64.8% versus 66.9%.

                May housing starts were up 4.3% versus predictions of 17.5%; building permits were up 14.4% versus 12.4%.

            The June housing index came in at 58 versus expectations of 45.


            The May Japanese trade balance was -Y933.4 billion versus projections of -Y970.8 billion.

            May UK CPI was 0.0%, in line; core CPI was 0.0% versus +0.1%.

            May EU CPI was -0.1%, in line.


            Freight index shows little improvement in May.

            Inflation is higher than you think.

What I am reading today

            Happy Birthday Adam Smith.

            Scientists discover mirror image of sun/earth in deep space.

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