The Morning Call
4/1/19
The
Market
Technical
The
S&P is mounting another try to pull away from the 2800/2811/2815 resistance
level (s). A move above the prior high
would be good evidence that, indeed, it is heading for its all-time high.
On
Friday, the long bond was off slightly on volume (you can see volume has been
above average since that gap open), but that did little to call into question
the strength of the current up move. I
remain concerned that the aforementioned gap will be closed.
The
dollar continued its solid performance. A
move above its prior high (about three
cents higher) would provide confirmation that the November to present trading
range is history.
Gold
had a tough week and an especially bad Thursday. While no technical support levels have been violated,
GLD appears to developing a head and shoulders pattern (a technical
negative). On the other hand, that gap
down on Thursday will likely be closed.
So, lots to watch on this chart.
The
VIX fell on Friday; not surprising on a big up day in stock prices. As you can see, it closed in the lower zone
of a trading range marked by its 200 DMA on the upside and a double bottom on
the downside---a break of which would be a plus for stocks.
Fundamental
Headlines
Ignore
the yield curve, they say.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
February
retail sales fell 0.2% versus projections of +0.3%; ex autos, they were down
0.4% versus +0.4%.
International
The
March Chinese manufacturing PMI came in at 50.5 versus estimates of 49.5; the
Caixin (small business) manufacturing PMI was 50.8 versus 50.1; the nonmanufacturing
PMI was 54.8 versus 54.1. (Remember, [a] these guys lie a lot and [b] they are
trade talks with the US in which they need to appear to be negotiating from
strength)
Q1
Japanese manufacturing index was 12 versus expectations of 13; the
nonmanufacturing index was 20, in line; the all industry index was 1.2 versus
the Q4 reading of 14.3; the March manufacturing PMI was 49.2 versus 48.9.
The
March EU manufacturing PMI was reported at 47.5 versus forecasts of 47.6;
inflation was up 0.8% versus 0.9%; unemployment was 7.8%, in line.
Other
Global
trade slows.
Brexit
update.
What
I am reading today
New Middle East alliance
(must read):
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