Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

10/20/14

A classmate died on Friday.  The funeral is today and I have 6 hours on the road to get there and back.  I suspect tomorrow’s Morning Call will be woefully short of commentary.

The Market

           

    Technical

        Monday Morning Chartology

            After a volatile week, the S&P finished within a short term downtrend and an intermediate term trading range.  Note that despite the powerful rally on Friday, it remains below its 200 day moving average and the lower boundary of its former short term trading range---which was support and now become resistance.  One of the technical keys this week will be how the S&P manages these levels (1904-1906).

            Last week witnessed the long Treasury assaulting the upper boundary of its intermediate term trading range and failing; then retreating sufficiently to break below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.  A close below that boundary today will confirm the break.  Even if this occurs, it is too early to get beared up on TLT.

            Up until Friday, GLD was doing a good job rallying off the lower boundary of its long term trading range.  Then on Friday it broke below the lower boundary of that very short term uptrend.  A close below that boundary today will confirm the break and re-set the very short term trend to a trading range.  Meanwhile, GLD remained well within its short and intermediate term downtrends and below its 200 day moving average.

            The VIX was down 12% on Friday.  It finished back below the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend, negating that break.  However, it remained within its short term uptrend and above its 200 day moving average.

    Fundamental

 

       Investing for Survival

            Don’t carry a lousy Market home with you at night (short):

            http://thereformedbroker.com/2014/10/10/muddy-road/

     

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

V.F. Corporation misses by $0.01, misses on revenue

·         V.F. Corporation (NYSE:VFC): Q3 EPS of $1.08 misses by $0.01.

·         Revenue of $3.52B (+6.8% Y/Y) misses by $50M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

            A bit long, but this is an excellent analysis of the US policy alternatives in the Middle East:

            http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/10/peter-van-buren-seven-worst-case-scenarios-battle-islamic-state.html

            Apparently, ISIS now has an air force (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-17/isis-airforce-takes-trained-iraqi-officers