The Morning Call
10/13/14
The Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P remains within a very short term downtrend. It also closed right on the lower boundary of
its newly re-set short term trading range as well as its 200 day moving average
(red line). If the S&P confirms a
break of these two support levels, it is a long way to the next support level
(1739)---which I would note is still well above Year End Fair Value
(1480). It also finished below the lower
boundary of its intermediate term uptrend for the second day. If it trades below this trend line thru the
final bell on Tuesday, it will confirm the break.
On
Friday, TLT’s break of its short term trading range was confirmed. It re-sets to an uptrend. It remains within a very short term uptrend,
above its 50 day moving average and within an intermediate term trading
range. The long Treasury as well as the
dollar both seem to be signaling that the US government bond market is being
viewed as a safe haven.
GLD
is making an All American try to rally.
It bounced in text book fashion off the lower boundary of its long term
trading range; but so far, remains within very short term, short term and
intermediate term downtrends. Until one
of these downtrends is broken, GLD will remain an ugly chart.
The
VIX remained within its very short term up trend and above its 200 day moving
average. Based on the distance element
of our time and distance element, it has re-set its short term trend from down
and a trading range. It finished within
its intermediate term downtrend. All of
this is negative for stocks.
Fundamental
S&P
lowered the credit rating of France.
Monday
morning humor (short):
What keeps Jamie Dimon up
at night (medium/long)?
The latest from John Hussman
(medium):
Investing for Survival
Global
diversification (medium):
Subscriber Alert
As
I pointed out numerous times as the Averages were making new highs, our
internal indicator tends to lead the Market, sometimes by too much. In the last couple of weeks, the general price
weakness is showing up in the form of some of our stocks starting to trade in
their Buy Value Range. Not a lot mind
you; certainly not a sign that a bottom is near. But there are areas within the Market that
have seen declines of 15-20%.
So
it is not unusual that some of our stocks are nearing Buy levels. I am Adding these names to our Buy Lists; but
I am not even considering Buying them.
If am simply reflecting the results of our Price Discipline.
In
the Dividend Growth Buy List, I am Adding ITC holdings (ITC-$$35), South Jersey
Industries (SJI-$54) and Chevron (CVX-$114).
In the Aggressive Growth Buy List, I am Adding Balchem (BCPC-$52),
Donaldson (DCI-$39) and Cummins Engine (CMI-$131). Again I am not taking any action at this time.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
Recent
data on household deleveraging (medium):
The
latest from Mohamed El Erian: Why the
Fed is thinking global (medium):
Freight
rates plunging (short):
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical Islam
ISIS
enters Baghdad suburb (medium):
ISIS on the Turkish front
(medium):
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