Thursday, October 16, 2014

The Morning Call & Subscriber Alert---A ride on the Wild Mouse

The Morning Call

10/16/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16141, S&P 1862) took a ride on the Wild Mouse yesterday.  The Dow remained below the lower boundary of its short term trading range (16331-17158) for the third day.  That confirms the break of its short term trading range, re-setting to a downtrend (15802-16933). If finished within an intermediate term trading range (15132-17158) and a long term uptrend (5148-18484).    It also ended below its 200 day moving average.

The S&P closed below the lower boundary of its newly re-set short term trading range (1904-2019) for the third day.  That confirms the break of this range and re-sets it to a downtrend (1818-1951).  It also finished within an intermediate term trading range (1740-2019), a long term uptrend (771-2020) and below its 200 day moving average.

Volume was up big; breadth was terrible.  The VIX soared, ending above the upper boundary of the newly re-set short term trading range for a third day.  This confirms the break and re-sets the short term trend to up.  It also closed back above the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend.  That re-starts the clock on our time and distance discipline; if it remains above this boundary through the bell on Monday, the intermediate term trend will re-set to a trading range. It also finished above its 50 day moving average.  
           
            The long Treasury was up.  Intraday, it spiked through the upper boundary of its intermediate term trading range but close back below it.  That leaves it in very short term and short term uptrends, an intermediate term trading range and above its 200 day moving average.

            And (short):

            GLD rose, closing within a very short term trading range, short and intermediate term downtrends and below its 50 day moving average.

Bottom line: lousy economic news coupled with margin calls got the ball rolling to the downside yesterday despite its already oversold condition.  When prices hit their depths of the day, that oversold state exerted itself and we got a decent intraday rally. 

I would not be surprised to see a follow through to the upside on a very short term basis---remember rallies in down markets can be quite vicious.  However, this Market is breaking---witness all the re-sets described above; and nothing in the pin action looked like capitulation.  Hence, it seems poised to go lower.  Therefore, I would resist any temptation of spend cash and if we do get a lift in the Market, I would be lightening up on all positions that are overpriced or the underlying company’s fundamentals are deteriorating as possible sale candidates.
           
            Rocky October’s followed by solid November/December’s (short):

    Fundamental
 
       Headlines

            Not a great day in US economic stat land: weekly mortgage applications rose but purchase applications dropped, September PPI was down, September retail sales fell and  ex autos and gas, they were negative and the October New York Fed manufacturing index was substantially below expectations.  Not great news for the economic recovery dream weavers; but also not good for our own sluggish growth outlook.  If this weakness continues to be reflected in poor September housing, industrial production, personal income and spending numbers, then I will likely have to lower our forecast.

            Finally, perhaps to make matters worse, the latest Fed Beige Book stuck with its modest recovery theme, suggesting that there is nothing obvious in these anecdotal data to warrant a reversal of current policy. 

            Overseas, the news wasn’t any better: Chinese inflation was reported at a five year low (not good amidst fears of disinflation/deflation concerns); and a former director of the Bank of Japan said that it was time to taper (that’s got cause some heartburn).

            Meanwhile, Germany made clear that it was not softening its austerity stance (medium):

            Then Putin piled on (short):

Bottom line: disappointing news was the theme of the day yesterday---the preponderance of which reinforced my primary worry about our forecast, a weakening global economy.  Throw in a third Dallas Ebola victim, soaring bond prices, saber rattling out of Russia and a potential busted risk arb deal, the scata really hit the fan, followed by the margin clerks. 

It certainly appears that the buy the dippers are a thing of the past, that the underlying theme of the Market is now in flux (I don’t know what it is but I know what it is not---don’t fight the Fed) and the Market internals are in disarray.  Unfortunately, as witnessed by yesterday’s aforementioned news flow, the fundamentals, which have never been great, are likely becoming worse.  And most important, valuations remain well north of Fair Value though admittedly less so than a month ago.

My bottom line is that for current prices to continue to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            Conditions have changed (medium):
           
            For the optimists (medium):

            MLP’s getting crushed.  Time to Buy?

        Subscriber Alert

            Two more stocks entered their Buy Value Ranges yesterday and, accordingly, are being Added to our Buy Lists.  As a reminder, our Portfolios are not Buying at this time.  They are: Proctor and Gamble (PG-$83) is being Added to the Dividend Growth Buy List and Petsmart (PETM-$65) is being Added to the Aggressive Growth Buy List.

       Investing for Survival

            The four most important words in investor lexicon (medium):

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