Thursday, October 16, 2014

Genuine Parts (GPC) 2014 Review

Genuine Parts distributes automotive replacement parts, industrial replacement parts, business products and electrical and electronic components in North America.  The company has grown profits and dividends at a 6% annual rate over the last 10 years, earning a 15%+ return on equity.  While the company is sensitive to economic conditions, it has demonstrated the ability to grow at an above average thru an economic cycle and should continue to do so a result of:

(1) product line expansion,

(2) penetration of new markets,

(3) aggressive cost cutting,

(4) acquisitions,

(5) stock buybacks.

Negatives:

(1) consumer uncertainty dampens demand,

(2) GPC lack pricing power in current environment,

(3) highly competitive industry.

Genuine Parts is rated A+ by Value Line, has 12% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 2.6%.

Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                  Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2004

GPC          2.6%           9%                50%             10
Ind Ave     1.8               8*                25                NA 

                Debt/                      EPS Down       Net        Value Line
               Equity         ROE      Since 2004      Margin       Rating

GPC          12%           20%             2                 5%          A+
Ind Ave     33              18              NA                6            NA

*over 50% of the companies in GPC industry do not pay a dividend

       Chart

            Note: GPC stock made great progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its September 2007 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term, the stock is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediate term, it is in a trading range (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 200 day moving average.  The Dividend Growth and High Yield Portfolios own a 90% position in GPC.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $57; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $98.


   

10/14

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