The Morning Call
10/30/14
The Market
Technical
The
indices (DJIA 16974, S&P 1982) waffled around yesterday, as investors anticipated
the Fed statement, then tried to figure out what it meant. The Dow finished above the upper boundary of
its short term downtrend for the third day, thereby confirming the break and
re-setting to a trading range (15857-17158).
It also ended within an intermediate term trading range (15132-17158), a
long term uptrend (5148-18484) but above its 50 day moving average.
The S&P
closed within a short term trading range (1820-2019), an intermediate term
trading range (1740-2019), a long term uptrend (771-2020) but above its 50 day
moving average.
Volume was low
again; breadth deteriorated. By one
measure, the Market is still overbought. The VIX rose, ending within a short
term uptrend, an intermediate term downtrend and above its 50 day moving
average.
The long
Treasury rose (despite the end of QE), closing within a very short term trading
range, a short term uptrend, an intermediate term trading range and above its
50 day moving average.
GLD declined, closing
below the lower boundary of its new very short term trading range; a finish
below that boundary today, it will re-set to a downtrend. It remains within short and intermediate term
downtrends and below its 50 day moving average.
Bottom line: I
was a bit surprised by the lack of reaction to the ending of QE and what seemed
to be a more hawkish stance by the Fed.
Listening to the media pundits, there was the usual confusion about what
it all means and that may be as much the reason for the tempered response as
anything. Further, it is not like this
move wasn’t telegraphed well in advance (already discounted?); although to be
fair, the regional Fed chiefs did their best to cloud the issue and raise hopes
that QE might be extended (or not).
Short term,
trading is apt to influenced by the extreme overbought condition of the
Market. Longer term, those divergences
are still there and a major prop to investor psychology has been removed. Now the issue is, do investors have
sufficient confidence that the economy has more to go on the upside and that the
Japanese and EU economies will have little effect?
NYSE margin debt
back near highs (medium):
I would use any rise in prices to Sell stocks
that are near or at their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s
fundamentals have deteriorated.
Best
six months of the year begins in November (short):
Fundamental
Headlines
Very
little economic news yesterday, either from the US or overseas. The sole number was weekly mortgage and
purchase applications which were both down.
Of
course, the big news of the day was the end of the FOMC meeting and the accompanying
statement. Several important points:
(1) the
Fed ended QE,
(2) it
gave a generally upbeat assessment of the economy,
(3) it
said that it saw substantial improvement in the labor market. That is a major change in language---to the
positive. Its prior more downbeat
wording had been interpreted by Fed watchers as a major reason for keeping
interest rates low,
(4) however,
it made no changes in the language on interest rates, leaving in the ‘considerable
period of time’ wording.
The general reading
of this statement was that it was much less dovish than prior ones. The $64,000 question is, is it really pushing
the economy out of the QE nest and how will that impact the economy and more
importantly the markets?
And from Fed whisperer,
Hilsenrath (medium):
Bottom line: we
about to see if my thesis that an end of QE will have little effect on the
economy but a major influence on asset pricing.
History suggests that the market reaction will not be positive. The other thesis about to be challenged is
whether or not Japan and the EU are sliding toward recession and that this will
impact growth in the US. I wait with bated breathe.
That said,
stocks are still overvalued even if I am wrong on both counts.
I
can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy
today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that
has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to
trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.
Bear
in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills. Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and
their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their
Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite
minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
Great
article on knowing when to lighten up (medium and today’s must read):
Bear
markets are caused by one of two conditions (short):
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