Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

2/3/14

The Market

           

    Technical

        Monday Morning Chartology

            In my absence, the S&P broke/confirmed the penetration of its 50 day moving average and the lower boundary of its short term uptrend, The important level to now watch is 1788 (brown line), because (1) it was the last level of level of support and (2) over the last two years, every time the S&P corrects 3-5% in bounces back hard. It could develop into the lower boundary of a short term trading range.  However, if it breaks 1788, then the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend is the next logical target (now at 1699).  

            http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/SPX-January-Barometer-Results-Are-In

 

Bear in mind the Rule that states that the performance of the first five days of January determined the performance for the month.  The next clause in the Rule is that January performance determines the performance of the year.

The long Treasury is attempting to break resistance at the upper boundary of its short term trading range.  If successful the next stop is the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend.

GLD couldn’t hold the lower boundary of that very short term uptrend though it remains above its 50 day moving average.  This chart remains untradeable.

The VIX continues to trade in a year long plus trading range---providing no information on Market direction.

      

            All major markets are bending.   Will they break? (medium)

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-02/citi-major-equity-markets-are-bending-will-they-break

            S&P winning streaks (medium):

            http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/1/30/835-days-and-counting.html

    Fundamental

    

            The latest from Paul Singer (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-02/paul-singers-vision-coming-riot-point-and-feds-formula-destruction

            Investors are stretching for reasons to buy (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-02/clients-are-stretching-find-reasons-not-cut

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            Chinese PMI slowed (50.5 versus 51.0 prior); EU PMI improved (54.0 versus 52.7 prior); and UK PMI fell (56.7 versus 57.2 prior)

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.