Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

2/24/14

The Market

           

    Technical

     Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P finished within its short term trading range and intermediate term uptrend.  It remains above its 50 day moving average.  Notice the developing reverse head and shoulders pattern.  The upper boundary of its short term trading range (also the all-time high) is acting as the neck line.  A move above that level would give extra fuel to an upside breakout.

            The long Treasury closed within its short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend.  Even though it was up on Friday, the head and shoulders formation remains in play.

            GLD’s chart is gradually improving as it stays within its very short term uptrend.  However, it is still in a short and intermediate term downtrend.  I want to see the lower boundary of the very short term uptrend successfully withstand a serious assault before getting too jiggy about GLD.

            The VIX continues to meander within a short term trading range.  It also closed within an intermediate term downtrend but above its 50 day moving average and provides no directional insight on stock price movement.

            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’:

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

    Fundamental

    

            Understanding the ‘carry trade’ (medium and today’s must read):

            http://seekingalpha.com/article/2030131-the-least-understood-dynamic-in-todays-economy-and-what-it-means-for-investment-assets?source=email_macro_view_edi_pic_0_0&ifp=0

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Ecolab Inc. misses by $0.01, beats on revenue

·         Ecolab Inc. (ECL): Q4 EPS of $1.04 misses by $0.01.

·         Revenue of $3.55B (+18.3% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -.39; December’s reading was revised from +.16 to -.03.

   Other

            Controlling your time (medium):

            http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/19/having-control-over-your-time-is-the-only-reasonab.aspx

            Real retail sales per capita (medium):

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Real-Retail-Sales-Per-Capita.php

            Where has all the capex gone (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-23/why-no-capex-recovery

            ‘Real world’ budget forecasts (medium and a must read):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-23/reviving-real-world-scenario-thats-disappeared-government-reports

Politics

  Domestic

Quote of the day (short):

http://cafehayek.com/2014/02/quotation-of-the-day-911.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

  International

            Now that the Olympics are over (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-24/russia-awakes-says-ukraine-poses-real-threat-our-interests-citizens-doubts-legitimac

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.