Tuesday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

2/18/14

The Market

           

    Technical

        Tuesday Morning Chartology

            The S&P maintained the price spike in spite of lousy economic news---though it did so on weak volume.  It is drawing near the upper boundary of its short term trading range---which also appears to be a double top.  Testing this resistance level will tell up a lot about the real strength of the bulls.

            The long Treasury remains within its short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend and above its 50 day moving average (red line).  You can see the head and shoulders pattern continues to develop.

            GLD had a spectacular week, finishing well over the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend.  However, it remains firmly within both a short and intermediate term downtrend.  I am waiting for the next downturn to see where it meets resistance.

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-17/citi-bullish-gold-silver-continue-expect-further-gains

                The VIX fell, finishing within its short term trading range and its intermediate term downtrend.  It broke below its 50 day moving average.

            Update on sentiment (short):

            http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/2/18/bullish-sentiment-ticks-higher.html

    Fundamental

    

     

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

The Coca-Cola Company misses on revenue

o    The Coca-Cola Company (KO): Q4 EPS of $0.46 in-line.

o    Revenue of $11.04B (-3.6% Y/Y) misses by $270M.

o    Shares -0.6% PM.

Medtronic Inc. beats on revenue

·         Medtronic Inc. (MDT): FQ3 EPS of $0.91 in-line.

·         Revenue of $4.16B (+3.2% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

V.F. Corporation misses by $0.02, misses on revenue

§  V.F. Corporation (VFC): Q4 EPS of $0.82 misses by $0.02.

§  Revenue of $3.29B (+9.7% Y/Y) misses by $50M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            Is the dollar in trouble (short)?

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-16/bank-america-warns-us-dollar-trouble

            ***overnight, the Bank of Japan doubled down on QE, increasing its lending facility and the growth rate of money supply.

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-17/nikkei-soars-over-400-points-boj-redirects-attention-qe-loans

            In other news, German investor confidence fell (55.7 versus expectations of 61.7) and the Bank of China removed liquidity from its banking system but bailed out two small wealth management trusts.

            http://blog.yardeni.com/

Politics

  Domestic

US ranks 46^th in world on press freedom (short):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-16/us-plunges-46th-world-press-freedom-index-below-romania

Lance Roberts looks at the American Recovery Act (medium):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-17/5-years-later-what-did-obamas-american-recovery-reinvestment-act-achieve

  International

            Is North Korea getting ready for another round of confrontation?

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-14/don%E2%80%99t-be-fooled-north-korea-getting-ready-provoke

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.