Wednesday, February 12, 2014

The Morning Call---Can this follow through rally last on such low volume?

The Morning Call

2/12/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 15995, S&P 1819) smoked yesterday on the back of Yellen’s dovish testimony.  Nevertheless, they are still within their short term trading ranges (15330-16601, 1746-1858).  The Dow remains within its intermediate term trading range (14696-16601) and below its 50 day moving average, while the S&P is in an intermediate term uptrend (1708-2488) and above its 50 day moving average.  Both are in long term uptrends (5050-17400, 728-1900).

            Volume rose though not by that much; breadth improved.  The VIX continues to trade within that year long plus trading range and within an intermediate term downtrend.

            The long Treasury fell, finishing within its short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend.

            GLD was up strongly, leaving it well above the upper boundary of that very short term downtrend.  A close above that level today will confirm the break.  It is also developing a very short term uptrend.   However, it is still within short and intermediate term downtrends.  In addition, as noted previously, it has had a dismal record of late following through on upside breaks.   That said, if GLD confirms the break of the very short term downtrend and if it dips and tests the developing short term uptrend, then our Portfolios will likely begin to nibble.

Bottom line:  yesterday’s euphoria notwithstanding, the Averages remain in a short term trading range---the upper boundary of which has been tested and validated once before. Furthermore, this rally has been on lousy volume; not a great sign of strength.  Certainly, the current spike could continue and blow through the aforementioned resistance level.  Even if that occurs, the upper boundaries of the indices’ 82 year long term uptrends (17400, 1900) loom ahead and should pose much more formidable barriers than the 16601/1858 levels.   Given the downsides, whether fundamental (11900/1480---2014 year end Fair Value) or technical (5050/728---lower boundaries of their long term uptrends), the risk/reward at current levels isn’t sufficient to be chasing stocks up.

For now, we just sit back and wait for either a break over the prior highs or for the S&P to follow the Dow and break the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend.

The only potential action that would be needed is if any price strength pushes one of our stocks trades into its Sell Half Range and our Portfolios act accordingly.


            Hopeful signs (short):

            Is technical analysis of any benefit right now (medium)?

            The Market’s growing schizophrenia (short):

            Are emerging markets oversold? (medium):

            And:
            http://blog.yardeni.com/

            NASDAQ parabolic? (short):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Almost everything came up roses yesterday.  US economic data included: January small business confidence was up, beating estimates, December wholesale inventories were up less than anticipated but well below sales (that sets up a build of inventories).  The only bad news was weekly retail sales which were down versus the prior report.

            However as I noted yesterday, investor attention was really focused on Yellen’s first testimony as Fed chief and she did not disappoint---which is to say that she parroted Bernanke perfectly.   Clearly a relief to investors who reacted giddily. 

            It is pointless of me to reiterate the risks associated with unwinding the unprecedented expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet because no one seems to give a shit.    The Fed may successfully negotiate the transition to tighter money; but (1) it would be the first time in history and (2) even if it does, there is no way of knowing that before the fact.  Meaning that the risk is there and should somehow be accounted for in security pricing.

            The other event that helped stocks out was the announcement by Speaker Boehner that the GOP caucus would vote for a clean debt ceiling bill and the subsequent passage by the house.  I opined yesterday that this was a positive for the Market short term but does little to help us poor taxpayers longer term.  Apparently, others shared that thought as Tea Party leaders launched a replace Boehner movement.  If this effort gains any traction that could spell trouble for the republicans in this year’s election---as the saying goes ‘a house divided against itself….’.

Bottom line: clearly the bulls are jiggy about having a Ben Jr. in place.  I assume that they believe that there will always be plenty of money whatever occurs in the economy or in Washington.  And they may be right.  The issue is, how long will investors tolerate the endless spiking of the punch bowl? 

I would argue that (1) the longer it lasts, the higher the risk, (2) easy money has been a miserable failure at stimulating economic growth and that seems unlikely to change and (3) easy money has been an outstanding success in inflating asset values including stocks which are already at lofty heights.  I believe that there is sizeable downside risk in stock prices even in the absence of any negative economic developments.

I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Chasing alpha (medium):

            Bob Farrell’s #9 Rule of Investing (short):

            More on emerging market problems (medium):

            And (medium):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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