SUBSCRIBER ALERT
1/28/14
The Dow has its 50 day moving average and the lower boundary
of its short/intermediate term uptrend.
The S&P has broken its 50 day moving average and the lower boundary
of its short term uptrend. The
confirmation of these breaks will occur if they remain below these boundaries
at the close Thursday. Even if that
happens, it will leave the Dow (below its intermediate term lower boundary) and
S&P (below its short term but not intermediate term boundary) out of sync.
As you know, the indices have done this several times in the
last year, only to recover; so it is too soon to bet on a big correction. Nonetheless, if the S&P does confirm the
break, the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend (1692) becomes a target;
and if that is broken, the Averages will be back in sync and almost certainly
headed lower. Much of this may be
determined by the upcoming Fed meeting and the maturity date of the debt of that
Chinese investment trust (Friday I think).
Bottom line: stocks are still way overvalued. They may be getting their long overdue
comeuppance; but it is too soon to be making any bets.
GLD has re-set itself into another very short term uptrend
and also broken its 50 day moving average.
One more resistance point a bit higher needs to be overcome and,
perhaps, we will start nibbling.
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