Friday, May 31, 2013

Thoughts on Investing

Thoughts on Investing—from the Pragmatic Capitalist
David Gilmour, a serial entrepreneur, sat down with the Wall Street Journal to discuss his three secrets to success. Gilmour founded Fiji Water and Clairtone Sound Corporation Limited. In this interview he shares his insights on how to start a new business and his approach to success.

Some of his more valuable insights:

Be a leader and not a follower.

Men make money, but money doesn’t make men.

Make others rich and you’ll make yourself rich.

The true entrepreneur is a creator and not an opportunist.

Have a plan and perfect your plan before you launch.

Surround yourself with people who can be better than you.


Do what you love.

Morning Journal---Europe just keeps getting worse

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            April pending home sales rose 0.3% versus expectations of a 1.4% increase.

            April personal income came in flat versus estimates of a 0.1% increase; personal spending fell 0.2% versus forecasts that it would be unchanged.

            ***over night, Japanese industrial production was stronger than anticipated, inflation was in line and household spending was weaker than expected.  In Europe, unemployment came in a t record highs and CPI was higher than estimates.

   Other

            World credit cycle rolling over (medium):

            The Fed and interest rates (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

The latest comic turn in the Eric Holder scandal (short):

  International

            The road that Europe is on (short):

            And (short):

                And a special hat tip to Sweden (medium):


The Morning Call---SNAFU

The Morning Call

5/31/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 15324, S&P 1654) roller coaster price movement of the last week continued yesterday as they moved back into the plus column, finishing within all major uptrends: short term (14594-15311, 1600-1677 [ the Dow was above its upper boundary]), intermediate term (14015-19015, 1487-2075) and long term (4783-17500, 688-1750).

            Volume rose; breadth improved.  The VIX declined, remaining within both its short and intermediate term downtrends---but also closed well above the base that has been developing since mid January.
           
            GLD rose.  It continued to trade below the lower boundary of its intermediate term downtrend but above what appears to be a double bottom and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.  Most notable, it broke to the upside out of the shortest term downtrend.  If it holds above this downtrend today, our Portfolios will start to nibble.

Bottom line: ‘stocks are in an uptrend and will be until they are not.  At the moment, there are hints that the current rally could be coming to an end.  But until it occurs, traders should stay long---although our Portfolios will continue to take advantage of this price move to lighten up on selected holdings. 

There are two technical developments that I am watching: (1) how stock behave at the 1675 level and (2) whether there is any loss of strength in the ‘buy the dips’ strategy.’
           
    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            A number of US economic indicators were released yesterday and about the best one can say is that they were somewhat disappointing: revised first quarter GDP came in slightly below expectations, corporate profits showed a marked slowing in growth, weekly jobless claims rose and April pending home sales were well below estimates.  The one positive stat was the first quarter GDP deflator.  Clearly not a great day for data; but in aggregate this week’s numbers so far have been basically flat.

            Overseas, the French unemployment rate rose again; but most notably, the Nikkei plunged 5%.  However after the close, it was announced that the Japanese government pension fund was looking into upping its allocation to stocks which spiked a number of global markets including our own.   Bond markets everywhere stabilized a bit; still many of the fixed income indices and ETF’s that I watch continued to decline.  
           
Bottom line: stocks (as measure by the S&P) are overvalued (as measure by our Valuation Model) even if our economic forecast is underestimating GDP growth, even if Europe muddles through and even if the global central banks somehow extricate themselves from what appears to me to be a completely untenable position. 

Clearly, I could be wrong but the arguments for why center around forward earnings projections (see first quarter corporate profits), expanding P/E’s (see the rising yield charts), a near perfect transition by the Fed from easing to tightening (see the history books) and little to no fallout from the other central banks rapid expansion of bank reserves (see Japan).  To be sure, all the aforementioned arguments could prove correct.  My only issues are, what are the probabilities that they are right, what is the magnitude of the downside if they are wrong and how much protection do you want for Your Money until you know those answers? 

            The new R&D (medium):

            When bad behavior is rewarded (short):

            The latest from Jim Rogers (long but a must read):

            The latest from Lance Roberts (medium):







Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Tim Hortons (THI) 2013 Review

Tim Hortons Inc operates, develops and franchises quick service restaurants in Canada (3148) and the US (602).  The company has grown profits at a 12% annual rate. Since 2005 with dividends per share increasing from $.12 to $1.04.  In the same timeframe it has generated a 25%+ return on equity.  Above average growth should continue as a result of:

(1)    geographic expansion,

(2)    increased marketing effort to raise the size of the average customer check size,

(3)        new product introductions,

(4)        increasing same store sales,

(5)        higher prices,

(6)        share buyback.

Negatives:

(1)    it is a highly competitive industry.  Its major competitor is Starbucks.

(2)    rising commodity prices,

(3)    the potential impact of continued economic malaise on sales.

            THI is rated A by Value Line, has a 30% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 2.1%.

  Statistical Summary

                  Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                  Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2005

THI           2.1%           17%              30%             6
Ind Ave      2.6              10*               44               NA 

                Debt/                        EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2005      Margin       Rating

THI          30%            32%           1                 14%           A
Ind Ave     43               23             NA               9             NA

*most companies in THI industry do not pay a dividend

     Chart

            Note: THI stock made great initial progress off its November 2008 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its December 2007 high (red line) and the September 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term, the stock is in a trading range (straight blue lines).  Intermediate term, it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.  The Aggressive Growth Portfolio does not own THI.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $49; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $64.

 



5/13

Stephan Roach on Japan

David Stockman on the Fed and the Deficit

Doug Kass switches his position on gold

Are the bond vigilantes back?

Investing for Survival


 Investing for Survival

New Caribbean Nation Wants U.S. Retirees…

This laid-back Caribbean country has it all:
a stable, democratic government, easy residency options, inexpensive beach properties, very few taxes (in fact, it’s one of the world’s top banking and tax havens)… and English is the official language.
There’s a little country in the Caribbean…a new country, in fact, having just gained its independence in 1981. Only about 312,000 people live here…in the entire country!
It’s a place where palm trees sway in rhythm with the gentle waves of clear warm waters caressing soft white sands.
People greet you with a smile and a cheerful “Good Day.” They’re genuinely happy. And why wouldn’t they be? They live in paradise.
They enjoy fresh fruit for breakfast, fresh fish for lunch, and celebrate the end of every blissful day watching the sun set over the Maya Mountains or (if they’re on one of the many islands that dot Belize’s coast) the Caribbean.
Worries are few. The cost of living is low…less than half what you’d spend in the rest of the Caribbean or the U.S. Property prices, too, are extraordinarily low. In parts of this paradise…virtually unknown to foreigners…you can buy a beach home for as little as $55,000. Even on its most popular ‘upscale’ island, where bargains are hard to come by, a brand-new condo can be had for little more than $100,000.
What’s more, if you’re not doing business in Belize, personal taxes are practically non-existent: 0% income tax on foreign-derived income. Plus, there are 0% capital gains tax, and 0% inheritance tax.
In fact, Belize is known as one of the world’s best banking and tax havens, offering several legal structures to protect your financial assets and reduce both your personal and corporate tax burden even more.
All this, plus it’s ridiculously easy to get residency.
Best of all, in addition to being one of the world’s last true tax havens, English is the official language.
Yet amazingly, this country and its benefits remain relatively unknown except to a savvy few.
The Last Affordable Caribbean Haven
Over the years, the world has started to take notice of little Belize. Celebrities like Leonardo DiCaprio, movie director Francis Ford Coppola, and singer-songwriter Jerry Jeff Walker have quietly purchased homes there. Many more…like Tiger Woods, Reese Witherspoon, Harrison Ford, Nicolas Cage, and Robert DeNiro…regularly vacation on its private islands and exclusive resort hotels.
Madonna fell so in love with the Belizean island of Ambergris Caye and its little town of San Pedro that she wrote a song about it, which she still sings in concert: “Last night I dreamt of San Pedro, tropical island breeze, all of nature wild and free. This is where I long to be, la Isla Bonita…”
JUST TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF THE AFFORDABILITY OF BELIZE:
Here’s how much it costs to own properties on these well-known English-speaking Caribbean islands: 1. Bermuda: Average condo price in 2008: $830,000. 2. St. John, United States Virgin Islands: Average condo price in 2008: $634,000.
But in Belize, you can still own a luxury condo on Ambergris Caye – the most country’s most popular resort island – for $100,000!
But even though celebrities have found Belize, it remains off the typical tourist radar. In fact, celebrities enjoy it for just that reason: there aren’t hordes of tourists around and they can vacation in peace. And that tranquility (and relative obscurity) is exactly what’s kept the country’s charm rating high and its prices low.
BELIZE FAST FACTS
Despite what you may think, Belize remains a little-visited country. Outside of cruise passengers on day trips, only about 250,000 tourists visit Belize each year…far less than most other Caribbean tourist destinations. (By contrast, each year nearly 4 million tourists visit the Dominican Republic, and nearly 6 million travel to Cancun, just a few hours north of Belize.) About half of the tourists who visit Belize go to Ambergris Caye. And that’s exactly why real estate prices are a bit higher there but remain so low in the rest of Belize…
“I’m on Social Security now,” Jan says, and that’s what I live on. It’s very easy to live here on $1,000 a month…and living on the island costs more than living on the mainland. But the extra costs of living here are worth it. I’m on an island…in the Caribbean…I live here because I love it!”
There’s Much More to Belize Than Ambergris Caye… The Country’s Most Popular Tourist Destination
There are many little islands off the coast (at least 200, say tourism officials) and miles of Caribbean coastline that remain undiscovered by most travelers.
And that’s where the real estate bargains are…
Belize is a stable English-speaking member of the British Commonwealth with banking laws designed to help foreigners protect their assets.  Foreigners fall in love with the country because of what it has to offer – relatively inexpensive property, friendly people, a tropical climate, a magnificent seacoast, and unparalleled diving, fishing and swimming.”
All This, And One of the World’s Best Retirement Programs, Too!
For instance, you may have heard of Belize’s Qualified Retired Person Program (QRP). (Despite the name, you needn’t be retired.) If you’re at least 45 years old and have a monthly income of at least $2,000 from a pension or annuity (including Social Security) generated outside of Belize, you can qualify. This allows you to bring all your personal goods to Belize tax-free, and pay no Belizean taxes on any foreign-earned income.

Morning Journal-Obama's problems keep growing

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers were down 0.9% versus the prior week but up 2.8% versus the comparable period last year; Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales were up 0.6% versus the similar timeframe in April and up 2.7% on a year over year basis.

            First quarter GDP growth was revised to 2.4% versus expectations of 2.5% and the initial reading of 2.6%; the GDP deflator came in at +1.1% versus estimates of +1.2%; corporate profits were up 4.0%.

            Weekly jobless claims rose 10,000 versus forecasts that they would be flat.

   Other

            The big boys are exiting the housing market (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

Freedom drives economic growth (medium):

More on Eric Holder’s potential perjury (medium):

More on the Sebelius slush fund.  What this article fails to mention is that only congress has the Constitutional authority over the purse; Sebelius’ (the executive branch) action is unconstitutional (medium):

            The power to bully (medium):

            And as long as I am heaping abuse on the ruling class, read the last dictum from the Department of Education (medium):

  International War Against Radical Islam

            Thoughts on Obama ending the war on terror (medium):

            The problem is that al Qaeda didn’t get the memo (short):

            More on the Benghazi investigation (medium):

The Morning Call + Subscriber Alert + Watch Japan carefully

The Morning Call

5/30/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            Yesterday, the indices (DJIA 15302, S&P 1648) gave up much of Tuesday’s gain, but still closed well within all major uptrends: short term (14568-15292, 1600-1677 [ the Dow was above its upper boundary]), intermediate term (14002-19002, 1487-2075) and long term (4783-17500, 688-1750).

            Volume declined; breadth weakened.  The VIX rose again but remains within its short and intermediate term downtrend.  Bond prices continued to weaken; and in case you didn’t notice, the ten year Treasury now yields more than the S&P.

            Keep in mind that Tuesday’s surge in prices notwithstanding, the trend change portended by last Wednesday’s ‘outside down day’ still holds.  Indeed, during Tuesday’s positive performance, the S&P touched the prior Tuesday’s (the day before the ‘outside down day’) intraday high and immediately sold off; and then yesterday prices fell.  The critical level to watch is 1675.  A break above that level would cancel the negative implication of the ‘outside down day’.  If 1675 can’t be surpassed, it could mark the top of the current rally.

            GLD was up again.  It finished above the recently formed double bottom and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend; however, it has yet to break above any downtrend.  Until it does, our Portfolios remain on the sidelines.

Bottom line: stocks are in an uptrend and will be until they are not.  At the moment, there are hints that the current rally could be coming to an end.  But until it occurs, traders should stay long---although our Portfolios will continue to take advantage of this price move to lighten up on selected holdings. 

There are two technical developments that I am watching: (1) how stock behave at the 1675 level and (2) whether there is any loss of strength in the ‘buy the dips’ strategy.

            Here is a really interesting study on the ‘sell in May and go away’ thesis (medium):
           
            The history of post election year rallies (short):

    Fundamental

     Headlines

            There were only a couple of secondary economic indicators released yesterday; and they were mixed: weekly mortgage applications fell, while purchase applications rose; weekly retail sales were mixed.  Nothing here to move stock prices or prompt any change in forecast.
           
            On a macro basis the OECD lowered its 2013 global economic growth forecast, while the Bank of International Settlements warned central banks about bank lending practices (medium and today’s must read):

            Those along with continued turmoil in the debt markets had investors on edge.  At the moment, all minds seem to be focused on what is driving interest rates higher---which at the moment is the object of a lot of pundit speculation but not much certainty.  As the answer gradually emerges (actual or fear of Fed tightening, rising inflation, increased demand for capital), it should tell us something about Market direction; but in the short term, we may only get increased volatility.

            What does high yield credit market weakness mean for stocks (short):

            Great must watch video on Abenomics and where it all ends (7 minutes):

            Volcker on Bernanke (you have to read this; it’s short):

Bottom line: the economy continues to struggle along.  Our ruling class seems hopelessly embroiled in a string of Obama scandals---which at least keeps them from doing us harm and could very well be a positive if Obama has to compromise on some critical issues in order to save His own ass.  Let’s see if the GOP has learned from the Obama mantra of ‘never let a crisis go to waste’. 

Meanwhile the global economy is not improving, if you believe the OECD and the BIS; and that means our EU ‘muddle through’ scenario remains at risk.

The big question is, is recent volatility in the currency and bond markets a sign that the jig is up for the central bank money printing?  As I have noted repeatedly, we are in uncharted waters; so I am not sure how the issue gets resolved.  My guess is that once the markets see that the emperor has no clothes, it will be too late to do any portfolio adjustments.  On the other hand, markets could just be having a bit of indigestion after a record run..  Whatever happens, I am happy with our current investment strategy.
   
            FDIC report on bank first quarter earnings

            For the bulls (medium):

            Update on Macro Markets Risk Index (short):
                       
            Cyprus bank deposits under the ‘capital control’ regime (short):

     Subscriber Alert

            Recently, Tiffany (TIF-$79) stock price spiked on better than expected earnings.  While it is still some distance from its Sell Half Range, it is at an all time high and has roughly doubled in value since its purchase.  As a result, the Dividend Growth Portfolio will Sell Half of this position at the Market open.

            As you recall, Pioneer Southwest Energy (PSE-$33) recently received a purchase offer and the stock popped.  The High Yield Portfolio Sold Half at the time.  With the deteriorating price action of utility stocks, the High Yield Portfolio will Sell the remainder of this position at the Market open.


            The stock price of Amerigas Ptrs (APU-$46) has traded above the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range.  Accordingly, it is being Removed from the High Yield Buy List.  The High Yield Portfolio will continue to Hold APU>




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Bill Gross on bond yields and stock prices

Santelli on interest rates and the bond market

Morning Journal--Pimco on Europe


 News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Tiffany's earnings top the street. Tiffany's (TIF) Q1 EPS beat expectations by $0.18, coming in at $0.70, while revenue grew 9% to $895M as comparable-store sales rose 8%. By region, revenues in Asia-Pacific increased 15% to $223M, while those in Europe and the Americas climbed 6%. A mix shift to lower gross margin products cut into profitability during the quarter as SG&A expenses grew 8%. Tiffany sees FY13 EPS of $3.43-$3.53, unchanged from prior guidance. 
Scotiabank (BNS): Q1 EPS of C$1.23 misses by C$0.03. 

Cato (CATO): Q1 EPS of $1.05 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $269.7M misses by $5.M. 
Hormel Foods (HRL): Q1 EPS of $0.46 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $2.15B (+7% Y/Y) misses by $0.04B.
Quality Systems (QSII): FQ4 EPS of $0.21 misses by $0.07. Revenue of $111.3M misses by $6.01M.
Target (TGT): Q1 EPS of $1.05 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $16.7B (+1% Y/Y) misses by $0.12B

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The March Case Shiller home price index rose 1.1% versus expectations of up 1.0%.

May consumer confidence came in at 76.2 versus estimates of 71.5

            The May Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index was reported at -2.0 versus forecasts of -3.0.

            The May Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index came in at -10.5 versus expectations of -8.0.

                Weekly mortgage applications were down 8.8% while purchase applications rose 3.0%.

   Other

            Bernanke’s cure is the economy’s disease (medium):

            Can the dollar love fest last (medium):

            More nonsensical data out of Europe (short):

            Sallie Mae splits in two insuring that the taxpayer will pick up all the losses from the impending student loan debacle (short):

Politics

  Domestic

Quote of the day (short):

Gibson Guitar raids now make sense (short):

            Senator Ted Cruz on the debt ceiling debate (11 minute video):

            AG Holder now under investigation for lying (medium):

  International

            Pimco on Europe (medium):

The Morning Call--Our Economic Model is on track, our Valuation Model is a different story

The Morning Call

5/29/13

The Market
           
    Technical

              The indices (DJIA 15409, S&P 1660) had another good day.  Of course, it was Tuesday, so stocks had to go up (now 20 in a row).  The Averages closed within all major uptrends: short term (14551-15265, 1596-1673 [ the Dow was above its upper boundary]), intermediate term (14002-19002, 1486-2074) and long term (4783-17500, 688-1750).

            Volume rose; breadth improved.  The VIX was up again on a strong up price day.  In addition, bond prices are falling across the yield curve and high dividend paying stocks are getting whacked.  I don’t regard this development as healthy unless the economy is or is about to begin growing at a much faster rate---which I don’t think that it is.

            And then there is the Japanese bond market (short):

            ***over night the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2013.

            GLD fell.  It finished below the lower boundary of its intermediate term downtrend but above both its recent double bottom and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.  Despite the clamor among technicians and gold bears that prices are going lower, I think GLD has performed admirably of late.  Nonetheless, I would like to see a bounce above at least one of its short term downtrends before venturing back into GLD.

Bottom line: stocks continued to their relentless advance.  As I noted yesterday, until ‘buying the dips’ ceases to be a winning strategy, there is nothing for me to do but sit on the sidelines and wait.  It is not like I am in agony; our Portfolios are still 60% invested.  So we are making money.  Nevertheless, our Sell Discipline pushed our Portfolios to a higher cash position sooner than, in retrospect, I would have liked.  That said, I review the assumptions and conclusions of our Valuation Model regularly; and so far I have no reason to doubt that it won’t ultimately prove correct on valuations---it was just premature in timing.

Meanwhile, (m)y strategy continues to be to take advantage of what I consider unwarranted optimism by lightening up on positions when the stock price trades into its Sell Half Range.  I believe that we will have a chance to buy these shares back at much lower price.’

            Margin debt hits all time high (short):

            Update on the Shanghai Composite (short):

    Fundamental

     Headlines

            A slew of stats were out yesterday, most of them above expectations: the March Case Shiller home price index rose as did May consumer confidence.  In addition, the May Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index while down was better than anticipated.  On the other hand, the May Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index came in worse than estimated. 

            However, what made investors feel all warm and fuzzy was....drum roll....more comments from the central bankers (this time the ECB and the BOJ) about the need for lower rates and easier money.  The magic elixir of free money will continue to drive stock prices up until investors finally figure out just how painful the exit is going to be.  Until then..........

Bottom line: the above datapoints fit perfectly with our ‘sluggishly growing economy’ scenario.  So this keeps our Economic Model on track and me mildly encouraged.  That said, our economic scenario produces considerably lower equity prices in our Valuation Model than currently exists in the Market.  Further, if interest rates continue to advance, that will act as a negative on discount rates (P/E’s). 

It is clearly disconcerting to me that factors that would lift equity valuations (economic growth, both here and abroad, earnings growth) are struggling not accelerating and those factors that would lower valuations (monstrous infusions of money, increasing interest rates) are rising and perhaps accelerating.  None of this squares with current Market performance; and I have no erudite explanation of why it is so.
    
            More on valuation (medium):

            The economics of stock buybacks (medium and a must read):
            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-28/presenting-full-impact-stock-buybacks-sp-500-earnings

            Another great analysis on valuations from Lance Roberts (medium and also a  must read):





Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at