AmeriGas Ptrs (APU) 2013 Review

Amerigas Partners distributes propane to over two million residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural and motor fuel customers in 50 states.   It also installs and services propane appliances and motor fuel systems.  The company has grown earnings at a 13% pace in the last five years while dividends have increased at a slower 5% rate.  In that period, return on equity averaged 30%+.  APU has been impacted by warmer winter weather of late, but still should be able to grow profits as a result of:

(1)    a broadly diversified geographic and customer base,

(2)    acquisitions.

Negatives:

(1)    fluctuations in commodity prices,

(2)    demand is subject to seasonal and weather factors,

(3)    potential impact of new energy regulations.

    APU is rated B++ by Value Line, has a 61% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 7.4%.

  Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend       Payout      # Increases  
                Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio*       Since 2003

APU           7.4%         6%               64%              7
Ind Ave      3.7            4                   63                NA

                Debt/                        EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2003      Margin       Rating

APU          61%             2               3                11%           B++
Ind Ave      59               11             NA               7              NA

* this is payout to cash flow

     Chart

Note: APU stock made great progress off its March 2009, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its May 2007 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term the stock is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediate term it is in a trading range (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The High Yield Portfolio owns a full position in APY.  It is currently on the High Yield Buy List.  The lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $62.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=APU
5/13