Tuesday, May 14, 2013

The Morning Call


The Morning Call

5/14/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 15091, S&P 1633) turned in a mixed day (Dow down, S&P up), closing within all major uptrends: short term (14382-15112, 1575-1649), intermediate term (13906-18906, 1475-2064) and long term (4783-17500, 688-1750).

            Volume was flat and still quite low; breadth was down.  The VIX was off fractionally, remaining within both its short and intermediate term downtrends.

            GLD had a rough day, finishing right on the lower boundary of its intermediate term down trend.  It is closing in on its mid April low and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.  An unsuccessful challenge will likely prompt our Portfolios to start re-building this position.

Bottom line: sell offs remain shallow, allowing stocks to work off an overbought condition in a quiet, civilized manner without losing much by way of momentum.  The trend remains firmly up with no sign that investors will allow anything to spoil their current euphoric mood. 

Meanwhile, (m)y strategy continues to be to take advantage of what I consider unwarranted optimism by lightening up on positions when the stock price trades into its Sell Half Range.  I believe that we will have a chance to buy these shares back at much lower price.’

            Sentiment summary (medium):

            A look at the Nikkei (short):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic news was upbeat (following last week’s positive though admittedly sparse data flow): April retail sales were stronger than anticipated and while March business inventories were flat, sales were up markedly.  It is too early to assume that the recent highly mixed progression of stats has turned to the plus side; but the last six news days has the yellow light flashing a bit slower.

            We got one international economic datapoint---Chinese power consumption is declining noticeably, supporting the decision to remove Chinese economic growth as a potential positive factor impacting our outlook.

            ***over night EU industrial production came in ahead of estimates while German consumer confidence declined.

            The other two issues that kept investor attention were:

(1)    the WSJ Hilsenrath article on Fed strategy to transition into a tightening mode; although judging by investor response, either no one believes it or the transition is already being discounted.  Most of the pundits are pushing the former point of view and that makes the most sense to me.  On the other hand, Hilsenrath is Bernanke’s bitch, so I doubt this article sprang full grown from inside his head.  Hence, one probably shouldn’t dismiss this article out of hand.

The latest entry into the global money printing race (medium):

(2)    the growing scandal over alleged IRS targeting of conservative organizations.  We don’t have all the facts yet, so I am making no judgments.  But if top administration officials get tagged with responsibility, then this problem along with Benghazi could seriously hamper a second term Obama agenda.  Strictly from the standpoint of fiscal policy, that would likely be a positive for opponents of more government spending and higher taxes.

Bottom line:  stocks are overvalued; and investors are choosing to ignore both bad news and the risks that could lead to a serious revaluation of equities.  We know that Markets can remain irrational far longer than anyone could imagine; and in my opinion, that is what is occurring now. 

The good news is that our Portfolios are 60% invested and benefiting from the  euphoria.  In addition, they are being given the opportunity to Sell some of their holdings at historically high relative and absolute values.  That is how I designed our Sell Discipline.  It is working as frustrating as it may be at this moment.

            The latest from Lance Roberts (medium):

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            For the bulls on fiscal policy (medium):

            For the bears on monetary policy (medium):

            A look at the S&P P/E ratio (short):

            A look at the Rule of 20 (short):

            S&P earnings expectations (short):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

No comments:

Post a Comment