Tuesday, May 21, 2013

The Morning Call--Are 'profits the mother's milk of the stock market?'


The Morning Call

5/21/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 15335, S&P 1666) took a breather yesterday, but remained within all major uptrends: short term (14471-15180, 1588-1665 [the Dow is above its upper boundary]), intermediate term (13965-18965, 1481-2069) and long term (4783-17500, 688-1750).

            Volume declined; breadth deteriorated.  The VIX rose, finishing within its short term and intermediate term downtrends.

            GLD bounced strongly off its April low.  If GLS remains above 130.8 by Wednesday’s close, our Portfolios will begin to re-build this position.

            And (medium):

            And on a brighter note (short):

Bottom line: stocks remain firmly in an uptrend.  While there are numerous technical indicators that raise questions of durability, momentum is currently trumping everything.  As long as that remains the case, stocks will continue to move  higher.  However, I believe that the 17500, 1750 levels present impenetrable resistance. 

Meanwhile, (m)y strategy continues to be to take advantage of what I consider unwarranted optimism by lightening up on positions when the stock price trades into its Sell Half Range.  I believe that we will have a chance to buy these shares back at much lower price.’

            Some perspective on this ‘can’t lose’ market (short):

    Fundamental
    
      Headlines

            Only one number yesterday---the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index came in well below expectations.  That isn’t great for our forecast; but in context of the overall dataflow, it is not a game changer.

            As usual, no one seemed to care.  Most of the day investors and the media spent speculating about what happens to Jamie Dimon today, wondering how far up the food chain the IRS scandal is going to move and trying to understand why FOMC member Evans spent so much time focused on the math of the Fed’s balance sheet since everyone with a third grade education knows how massive it is and how much more massive it will be if QEInfinity continues.

            If that sounds like a snoozer, then you understand the market’s performance.

Bottom line:  stocks (as defined by the S&P) get more overvalued (as defined by our Model) every day; and as long as investors’ mood remains highly optimistic, that is not likely to change.  I have no idea how much higher stocks will go.  But I don’t think that is the appropriate measure. The issue is, are you smart enough to ride what is left of this rally and get out before stock prices are lower than they are today. 

If you are, you have my utmost admiration.  I, regrettably, am not that smart.  So I rely on a Model that has worked on a long term basis for four decades.  I am wrong to have our Portfolios at 40% cash today.  I am content to be wrong on a short term basis to be sure my principal stays in tact long term.

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            Is a melt up coming? (medium):

            More on valuation (short):

            And (medium):

            Unfortunately, all those under funded pension funds are not benefiting from the recent Market moon shot (medium):

            Speaking of retirement funds, they appear to be a source of funds for the growing real estate bubble (short):

            True or false: ‘Profits are the milk of the stock market’.  And the answer is (short):

            So much for ‘Cyprus isn’t a template’ (short):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

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