The Morning Call--We are getting close to a selling tsunami

 

The Morning Call

 

4/11/24

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-bets-are

 

            We are getting close to a selling tsunami.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/we-are-getting-closer-cta-selling-tsunami

 

            Who is the source of gold buying?

            https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/business/gold-price-inflation.html

 

            Is gold overpriced?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-overpriced-or-can-its-price-go-even-higher

 

            What is driving gold prices?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-warning-us-or-running-markets

 

            Money market funds are raking in the cash.

            https://sherwood.news/markets/money-funds-are-raking-in-record-amounts-of-cash/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 211,000 versus projections of 215,000.

 

The Mrach budget deficit was $236 billion versus consensus of $197 billion.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-deficit-tops-11-trillion-first-six-months-fiscal-2024-spending-hits-2024-high

 

March PPI was up 0.2% versus estimates of up 0.3%; core PPI was up 0.2%, in line.

 

                        International

 

March Chinese CPI was down 1.0% versus expectations of -0.5%; March YoY PPI was -2.8%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Markets lower rate cut probabilities.

              https://www.ft.com/content/0395f49d-ac44-4698-afc2-d4784204cf41

 

The FOMC released the minutes from its latest meeting but those were dwarfed by the earlier reported CPI number (above).

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/fomc-minutes-uncertainty-about.html

 

              Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-canada-keeps-rates-unchanged-needs-more-evidence-slowing-inflation-cuts

 

              ECB leaves rates unchanged.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/euro-extends-decline-after-ecb-holds-rates-highs-hints-cuts-come

 

           

            Inflation

 

              Inside the CPI number.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/yoy-measures-of-inflation-services.html

 

            Recession

 

              Corporate credit and economic growth.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/04/09/market-morsel-cash-and-carry/

 

            China

 

              China/US trade may have bottomed.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/04/us-china-trade-decline-may-have-hit.html

 

              Fitch downgrades China’s outlook.

              https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/10/economy/china-fitch-rating-downgrade-intl-hnk/index.html

 

     Bottom line.

           

            Stocks in a ‘no landing’ scenario.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/04/in-a-no-landing-scenario-growth-stocks-will-be-king/

 

            Election uncertainty argues for high quality bonds.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/04/10/2024-election-uncertainty-drive-fixed-income-outperformance

 

            Earnings season may bring changes.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/04/10/earnings-season-may-bring-changes

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Fastenal press release (NASDAQ:FAST): Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.52 misses by $0.01.

Revenue of $1.89B (+1.9% Y/Y) misses by $20M.

 

Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) declared $0.39/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

           

 

 

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The Morning Call--Something is breaking

 

The Morning Call

 

4/10/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-suffer-conniptions-ahead-crucial-consumer-price-print

 

            Margin debt surges.

            Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Trade of the decade.

            https://allstarcharts.com/trade-of-the-decade/

           

            Risk-on sentiment persists.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-sentiment-persists-defying-gravity-and-logic/

 

            Gold is now overbought.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-gold-charts-we-are-watching-time-chill

 

            Gold, inflation and interest rates.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-has-become-bigger-risk-stretched-gold-prices

 

            A warning from Goldman’s flows guru.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-flows-guru-warns-us-stocks-face-escalator-ride-elevator-ride-down

 

            Something is breaking.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/somethings-breaking

 

            I sold my IWN and GDX trading positions.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.1% but purchase applications were down 5.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.

 

March CPI was up 0.4%versus estimates of +0.3%; core CPI was also up 0.4% versus +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-prices-print-hotter-expected-led-surge-energy-shelter-costs

 

                        International

 

                          March Japanese PPI was up 0.2% versus predictions of +0.3%.

 

                          March Chinese YoY vehicle sales rose 9.9% versus consensus of up 4.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Economic confidence slips in April.

                          https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2024/04/09/americans_economic_confidence_slips_in_april_1023819.html

 

                          Survey of consumer expectations.

                          https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/

 

                          Q1 retail vacancy rate unchanged.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/moodys-retail-vacancy-rate-unchanged-in.html

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ dilemma.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/09/business/economy/interest-rates-inflation-federal-reserve.html

 

              Part 2.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-09/bullard-says-three-interest-rate-cuts-this-year-is-base-case?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Goldman and AMEX cut rates on savings accounts.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-do-they-know-goldman-amex-quietly-cut-rates-savings-accounts-fed-next

 

            Inflation

 

              New home prices ae down but still unaffordable to the average household.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/04/new-home-prices-fall-still-unaffordable.html

 

            Recession

 

              What recession?

              https://ritholtz.com/2024/04/what-recession-state-coincident-indicators/

 

            China

 

Yellen apparently didn’t do a very good job in addressing Chinese overproduction.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04/yellen-and-biden-administration-incompetence-bullying-and-entitlement-rather-than-making-a-case-here-regarding-china-overproduction.html

 

     Bottom line.

 

            A look at Q1 earnings season.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/04/07/weekly-market-pulse-a-new-paradigm/?src=news

 

            Market corrections matter more than you think (must read).

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/04/09/market-corrections-matter-more-lance-roberts

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/04/quotation-of-the-day-4601.html

 

 

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The Morning Call---US public debt is unsustainable

 

The Morning Call

 

4/9/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bullion-back-near-record-highs-rate-cut-hopes-hammered

 

            Hedge funds dumping consumer stocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/did-something-change-goldman-trading-desk-warns-hedge-funds-are-dumping-consumer-stocks

 

            Bond yields likely to stay elevated.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-stay-elevated-inflation-emboldens-short-bond-trade

 

            The potential for shrinking liquidity.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/next-several-weeks-we-could-see-300-billion-liquidity-leaving-system

 

            China’s gold buying frenzy.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-gold-buying-frenzy-sparks-chaos-etfs

 

  Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The March small business optimism index came in at 88.5 versus forecasts of 90.2.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-small-business-optimism-slides-11-year-low-bidenomics-fails

 

                        International

 

The March Japanese consumer confidence index was 39.5 versus expectations of 39.7; March YoY machine tool orders fell 8.5% versus -5.0%.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Will sticky inflation kill the prospects for a rate cut?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-sticky-inflation-kill-prospects-for-rate-cuts-in-2024/#more-21950

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              US public debt is unsustainable.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-us-public-debt-unsustainable-and-destroying-middle-class

 

            Inflation

 

              Jamie Dimon on long term inflation.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/04/08/what-jamie-dimon-said-about-long-term-inflation-fed-interest-rates-2-to-8-or-even-more-and-qe-qt/

 

              Odds of $100/barrel oil are rising.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-07/are-oil-prices-heading-to-100-this-summer-as-a-global-shortage-takes-hold?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Recession

 

              The case for a ‘slower growth/muddle through’ scenario.

              Inflation Scare Or Much Ado About Nothing? - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

              The case for recession.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/04/steve-hanke-says-the-recession-cometh

 

              Update on big four recession indicators.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/04/05/the-big-four-recession-indicators-march-employment

 

              RecssionAlert weekly leading economic index.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/04/05/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

            China

 

              Yellen implores China to rethink growth strategy.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-07/yellen-advances-us-china-ties-despite-tough-criticism-on-exports?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

     Bottom line.

 

            The power of dividend growth portfolios (skip over the first section of the article).

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/04/06/crisis-cycle-investing-mauldin

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Was Caligula mad or just misunderstood?

            Was Caligula mad—or just misunderstood? (nationalgeographic.com)

 

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