The Morning Call---A second round of inflation?

 

The Morning Call

 

3/7/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-puke-despite-easing-tariffs-trifecta-trouble-hits-markets

 

            Grinding panic.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/grinding-panic-0

 

            The Market should bounce here, but……….

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/it-should-really-bounce-here

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

February nonfarm payrolls were up 151,000 versus consensus of up 160,000.

 

                        International

 

                          Q4 EU (3^rd estimate) GDP grew 0.2% versus predictions of +0.1%.

 

The January/February Chinese trade balance was +$170.5 billion versus forecasts of +$142.2 billion.

 

January German factory orders fell 7.0% versus expectations of -2.8%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Near term gloom; long term boom.

                              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/03/near-term-gloom-long-term-boom.html

 

                          New home unaffordability surges.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/03/unaffordability-of-new-homes-surges-in.html

 

                          Thursday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-5th-2025/

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              ECB cuts rates for sixth time and says monetary policy becoming less restrictive.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-03-06/ecb-interest-rate-decision-euro-lagarde-press-conference-live-updates?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Another win for the US economy.

              https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/us-treasury-trump-score-huge-win-main-street

 

              Trump tones down DOGE’s deep state assault.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-tones-down-doges-deep-state-assault-using-scalpel

 

              But look at its latest find (scam).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/doge-hones-shady-climate-popup-ngo-shell-received-billions-biden

 

            Inflation

 

              Is this the beginning of a second round of inflation?

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/03/05/is-this-the-beginning-of-the-second-wave-of-inflation/

 

 

            Recession

 

              Update on odds of a recession.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/03/is-a-recession-still-coming

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump crawfishes again.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stocks-bounce-lutnick-hints-usmca-compliant-tariff-exemptions

 

              Short term pain, long term gain?

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/short-term-pain-long-term-gain/

 

              The case against tariffs is getting stronger.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-06/the-case-against-tariffs-is-getting-stronger?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Geopolitics

 

              US and Ukraine set to meet next Wednesday.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/high-level-us-ukraine-meeting-set-riyadh-after-zelensky-apologizes

 

            Germany

 

              The German shock.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-06/germany-s-vance-shock-turns-to-anger-and-animal-spirits?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          German bonds in rout.

                        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-06/japan-s-10-year-bond-yield-reaches-highest-since-june-2009?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Investing

 

            Guidelines for downturns.

            https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/perspectives-on-market-downturns

 

            The index inclusion effect is dead.

            https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/the-index-inclusion-effect-is-dead

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/05/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued

 

            Howard Marks reviews the credit market.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/06/credit-gimme

 

            Gold prices getting frothy.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-prices-are-getting-frothy?post=485573

 

            Counterpoint.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold--healthy-pullback-already-over?post=485572

 

            Short term holders of bitcoin dominate.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/short-term-holders-dominate-as-bitcoin-reboundswhats-next?post=485568

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Winners of the 2025 nature photography awards.

            https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2025/02/winners-2025-world-nature-photography-awards/681773/

 

            Biden and his autofill signature.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/could-bombshell-discovery-render-all-bidens-presidential-actions-null-and-void

 

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