The Morning Call
3/5/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the charts.
Bounce or big
trouble.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications were up 20.4% versus
forecasts of +9.0%.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew
faster than in the prior week.
The February ADP private payroll report showed
expectations.
The March economic
optimism index was reported at 49.8 versus projections of 53.1.
International
January EU PPI came in at +0.8% versus
estimates of +0.5%.
February UK YoY auto sales fell 1.0% versus
predictions of -6.5%.
The February
Japanese services PMI was 53.7 versus estimates of 53.1; the composite PMI was
52.0 versus 51.6; the February Chinese Caixin services PMI was 51.4 versus
50.8; the composite PMI was 51.5 versus 51.4; the February German services PMI
was 51.1 versus 52.2; the composite PMI was 50.4 versus 51.0; the February EU
services PMI was 50.6 versus 50.7; the composite PMI was 50.2, in line; the
February UK services PMI was 51.0 versus 51.1; the composite PMI was 50.5, in
line.
Other
January median
household income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/03/median-household-income-in-january-2025.html
YoY heavy truck sales fall in February.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/heavy-truck-sales-decreased-9-yoy-in.html
The volatility of the Atlanta Fed nowcast.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/important-changes-in-trend-in-bond-and.html
Overnight News
President Donald
Trump's administration is considering granting relief from his 25% tariffs on
Canadian and Mexican imports to products that comply with the trade pact he
negotiated with the two U.S. neighbors during his first term, Commerce
Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday.
Fiscal Policy
Global government borrowing to hit record
high in 2025.
https://www.ft.com/content/951828dd-9d5e-434e-9a47-4f0272941a60
Inflation
The NY Fed’s measure of persistent inflation
accelerated in January.
Recession
Recession odds rising.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/03/recession-betting-odds-rising
Interest rates are down for all the wrong
reasons.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/business/treasury-bond-yields-trump-economy.html#
Tariffs
How Canada cut its trade deficit.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-no-tariffs-required/?src=news
This whole tariff
business is too fluid to have any confidence in predictions of the future. So I
would read this as what could happen in a worse case scenario.
A
global trade war has started; a global recession will follow.
Investing
Update on valuations.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/04/qratio-market-valuation-february-2025
Earnings
estimates have gone parabolic.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/04/estimates-analysts-gone-parabolic
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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