The Morning Call--Retaliation

 

The Morning Call

 

3/4/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/crypto-crude-mega-caps-crumble-stagflation-reignites-momo-meltdown

 

            Stocks for sale.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-tumbles-back-below-key-cta-sell-trigger-activating-billions-sell-orders

 

            Tracking capital rotation in three easy charts.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/how-to-track-a-capital-rotation-event-in-three-charts?post=485080

 

                Bounce or breakdown.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dare-bear-bounce-or-breakdown

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          January construction spending fell 0.2% versus estimates of 0.0%.

 

The February manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7 versus projections of 51.6.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/03/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-february-2025

 

The February ISM manufacturing index was 50.3 versus consensus of 50.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/03/ism-manufacturing-pmi-expands-february-2025

 

                        International

 

The January Japanese unemployment rate was 2.5% versus expectations of 2.4%; the February consumer confidence index was 35.0 versus 35.7.

 

The January EU unemployment rate was 6.2% versus forecasts of 6.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/03/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

                          Monday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-3rd-2025/

 

             Overnight News

 

Trump ordered a pause on all military aid to Ukraine until he determines there’s a good-faith commitment to peace, a defense official said. The US will engage with Volodymyr Zelenskiy if he calls with a “serious proposal” to end the war, JD Vance told Fox.

 

China retaliates against Trump’s tariffs, imposing 15% duties on imports of US poultry, wheat, corn, and cotton, and 10% on soybeans, pork, beef, fruit, vegetables, and dairy, while 15 US firms were added to Beijing’s export control list and another 10 were put on the “unreliable entity list” (Illumina has been barred from exporting tools to China).

 

Canada’s retaliatory tariff plan includes 25% levies on about C$30 billion ($20.8 billion) worth of goods from the US, with a second round on C$125 billion of products in three weeks. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to spell out her plan today.

 

             Monetary Policy

 

              ECB likely to cut rates this week.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/ecb-primes-fresh-rate-cut-as-inflation-begins-to-ease-again-523526f4?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Ray Dalio on the debt crisis.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-03/dalio-warns-of-us-debt-crisis-heart-attack-within-three-years?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              The government deficit and where Your Money is going.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-federal-debt-budget-deficit-spending-charts-650f2dff?mod=economy_lead_pos5

 

              Lower government spending will strengthen not weaken the economy.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/lower-government-spending-will-not-weaken-the-us-economy-it-will-strengthen-it?post=484998

 

Recession

 

              The probability of recession is rising.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/recession-probability-rising-2/

 

              Last week’s poor personal spending number wasn’t as bad as it looked.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/28/no-consumer-spending-didnt-plunge-in-january-and-auto-sales-didnt-collapse-or-whatever-but-the-huge-seasonal-adjustments-might-have-gone-awry/

 

 

              However, the goods producing sector of the economy is no longer expanding.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/ism-manufacturing-index-and.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              The harsh arithmetic of current US trade policy.

              https://www.aei.org/economics/the-harsh-arithmetic-of-current-us-trade-policy/

 

              Another math lesson on trade deficits.

              https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/the-other-side-of-the-transaction

 

              How much do tariffs raise prices?

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/how-do-tariffs-affect-prices-trump-plan-009aa14e?mod=economy_lead_pos4

 

              Tariffs and the slowing economy.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/tariffs-and-the-slowing-economy-recent-data-shows-reason-for-trump-to-have-caution-b94e4040?mod=opinion_lead_pos2

 

              Trade wars come with a price.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/trade-wars-come-with-a-price-and-investors-may-already-paying-it?post=485061

 

    Investing

 

            A review of valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/03/updated-bulls-eye-matrix

 

            Will the current rotation in the Market last?

            https://www.morningstar.com/markets/stock-market-rotation-is-underway-will-it-last

 

            Reinversion continues.

            https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/02/reinversion-continues

 

            In praise of diversification.

            https://www.ft.com/content/80d0ca38-7b15-4432-891d-d9b1d5b080ca

 

            Getting dizzy?

            Getting Dizzy? Buy Gold.

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.