The Morning Call--Bearish sentiment surges

 

The Morning Call

 

3/6/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-bond-yields-jump-trump-eases-tariff-tensions-germany-goes-nuts

 

            Bearish sentiment surges.

            Bearish Sentiment Surges As If The Market Just Crashed - RIA

           

            Stocks dumped.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/stocks-dumped-whos-left-sell

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/isnt-over-top-goldman-trader-warns-were-bottom-first-inning-if-markets-re-rating-growth

 

            However, this is somewhat different take from another Goldman trader.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-largest-hedge-fund-net-selling-decade-amid-growth-downgrade

 

Market Ear agrees with the latter.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/stocks-dumped-whos-left-sell

 

Yet more from Goldman: five macro scenarios and how to trade them.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/5-macro-scenarios-how-trade-them-goldman-trader-eyes-changing-landscape

 

            Ten charts from Ed Yardini.

            IN 10 CHARTS: Moving Markets

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 221,000 versus forecasts of 235,000.

 

Q4 nonfarm productivity rose 1.5% versus expectations of +1.2%; unit labor costs were up 2.2% versus +3.0%.

 

                          January factory orders were up 1.7% versus consensus of +1.6%.

 

The January trade balance was -$131.4 billion versus projections of -$127.4 billion.               

 

The February ADP private payrolls report showed an increase of 77,000 jobs versus estimates of 140,000.

 

The February services PMI was 51.0 versus predictions of 49.7; the composite PMI was 51.6 versus 50.4.

                           https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-services-sector-surveys-beat-expectations-february-jobs-new-orders-jump

 

The February ISM nonmanufacturing index was 53.5 versus forecasts of 52.6.

                           https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/economically-weighted-ism-indexes-for.html

 

                        International

 

                          January EU retail sales fell 0.3% versus expectations of +0.1%.

 

The February EU construction PMI came in at 42.7 versus consensus of 45.4; the February German construction PMI was 41.2 versus 44.0; the February UK construction PMI was 44.6 versus 49.5.

 

                        Other

 

                          Wednesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-4th-2025/

 

                          Property insurance costs up substantially in 2024.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/ice-mortgage-monitor-property-insurance.html

 

The latest Fed Beige Book showed prices, employment and economic growth up slightly.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beige-book-economic-activity-employment-and-prices-rose-january-economic-expectations-are

 

            Overnight News

 

The Trump administration is weighing more exemptions from the new tariffs on Canada and Mexico — this time for the agriculture industry. Officials are discussing waiving the 25 percent duty on some agriculture products, including Canadian potash, a key ingredient in fertilizer.

 

Trump executive order could be released as soon as Tues calling for the Dept. of Education to be abolished (although doing so would require an act of Congress).

 

            Monetary Policy

 

I ordinarily don’t have a lot of sympathy/patience with the Fed’s labored attempts at setting monetary policy. But I do think Trump is making life much more difficult for it.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/what-is-stagflation-trump-tariffs-b8be754c?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Trump cares too much about the wrong deficit.

              https://unseenandunsaid.substack.com/p/this-administration-cares-a-lot-about

           

Effects of a trade war is now starting to show up in the latest nowcasts.  It is helpful to know what the potential impact could be; but probably too soon to be making bets on it.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/nowcast-for-us-q1-gdp-falls-sharply/

 

              Supreme Court rejects Trump’s pause in USAID payouts.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/supreme-court-rejects-trumps-pause-on-usaid-payouts/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Zelensky’s letter to Trump.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/03/zelensky-climbs-down.php

 

     Investing

 

            The latest from JP Morgan.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-pours-cold-water-tariff-optimism-does-ease-tariff-risks-we-dont-think-so

 

            Warren Buffett’s test.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/03/04/the-crystal-ball-test/

 

            February dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/03/dividends-by-numbers-in-february-2025.html

 

            The seasonal price trend in bitcoin.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-crash-seasonality-says-so?post=485368

 

            Goldman blows up the euro trade.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-blows-euro-trade-european-fiscal-expansion-trade-finished-over-pushed-too-much-week

 

     Investor Alert

 

In our regular quarterly review, Exxon failed to meet the minimum quality criteria for inclusion in the Dividend Growth Universe. Accordingly, it is being Removed and the Dividend Growth Portfolio will Sell its position at the open.

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) declared $1.50/share quarterly dividend, 5.6% increase from prior dividend of $1.42.

 

Kroger press release (NYSE:KR): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.14 beats by $0.03.

Revenue of $34.3B (-7.5% Y/Y) misses by $460M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Zelensky and Foghorn Leghorn.

                        https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/03/05/you_know_as_much_about_zelensky_as_you_do_foghorn_leghorn_1095507.html

 

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