The Morning Call---To pivot or not to pivot

 

The Morning Call

 

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-sink-yield-curve-tumbles-most-inverted-40-years

 

            Cracks in the Treasury bond market.

            https://www.ft.com/content/632411eb-c3fa-4351-a3b6-b0e30bdc0ef7

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

October industrial production declined 0.1% versus estimates of up 0.2%

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/industrial-production-decreased-01.html

 

                          The November housing index came in at 33 versus projections of 36.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/nahb-builder-confidence-decreased.html

 

                        International

 

The October Japanese trade balance was Y-2162.3 billion versus consensus of Y-1610.0 billion.

 

                          October EU CPI was 1.5%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Business cycle indictors at mid-November.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/business-cycle-indicators-at-mid-november

 

                          Update on big four economic indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/11/16/the-big-four-industrial-production-inches-down-in-october

 

                          Update on Q4 nowcasts.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-growth-expected-to-continue-in-q4/

 

                          Household debt soars at fastest pace in 15 years.

                          https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/household-debt-soars-at-fastest-pace-in-15-years-as-credit-card-use-surges-fed-report-says.html

 

                          Architecture billions decreased in October.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/aia-architecture-billings-index.html

 

            The Fed

 

              Scott Grannis believes that the ‘pivot’ is upon us.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/11/near-term-fed-pivot-almost-guaranteed.html

 

              But Bullard says no way, Melvin.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-tumble-after-feds-bullard-comments

           

              ECB doves make case for less aggressive rate hikes.

              https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecbs-visco-says-case-growing-less-aggressive-rate-hikes-2022-11-16/

 

            Inflation

 

              How to stop inflation.

              https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/nov/14/how-to-stop-inflation/

 

              Reducing inflation without a recession may not be possible.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/bringing-inflation-down-without-a-recession-might-not-be-feasible-fed-official-says-11668571133?mod=economy_lead_pos2

 

              The good news and the bad news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/there-light-end-inflation-tunnel-were-not-there-yet

 

     Bottom line

 

            Ed Yardini seems to believe that we have seen the bottom.

            https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/going-fishing-for-a-stock-market-bottom/

 

            S&P 500 quarterly dividend forecasts.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/11/fall-2022-snapshot-of-future-for-s-500.html#.Y3UwBXbMKUk

 

            Control what you can and accept what you can’t.

            https://allstarcharts.com/doing-it-right/

 

            Bubbles and fraud have a lot in common.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2022/11/16/investment-bubbles-and-frauds-have-a-lot-in-common/

 

            Do we implement portfolio construction completely backwards?

            https://www.pragcap.com/do-we-implement-portfolio-construction-completely-backwards/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

           

Cisco press release (NASDAQ:CSCO): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.86 beats by $0.02.

Revenue of $13.63B (+5.7% Y/Y) beats by $340M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            What is conservative?

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/is-it-conservative

 

Getting rich isn’t easy unless you hit the lottery or are a member of the lucky sperm club.

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/proof-of-work/

 

            Josh Brown on the FTX fraud.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/11/16/glamour/

 

            This author attempts to quantify the costs of ‘green’ policies and offers solutions.

            https://issuesinsights.com/2022/11/14/the-abcs-of-g-r-e-e-n/

 

 

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