Wednesday, November 16, 2022

The Morning Call---More 2023 forecasts

 

The Morning Call

           

11/16/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/spoos-shake-rollercoaster-session-article-5-panic-close-above-4000

 

Bullish indicator supports rally narrative (the author may be a bit too optimistic, but this is still a positive sign).

https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2022/11/bullish-indicator-shows-stocks-are-ready-for-a-mega-rally/

 

            Pay attention to gold and silver.

            https://allstarcharts.com/dust-your-rocks-off/

 

        Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

           

Weekly mortgage applications rose 2.7% while purchase applications were up 4.4%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

                          October PPI was reported at +0.2% versus estimates of +0.4%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/11/15/october-producer-price-index-finished-goods-at-11-2-yoy

 

October retail sales were up 1.3% versus predictions of +1.0%; ex autos, they were up 1.3% versus +0.4%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-soar-october-gasoline-sales-spike

 

The November NY Fed manufacturing index came in at +4.5 versus expectations of -5.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/2022/11/15/empire-state-mfg-survey-activity-edged-up-in-november

 

                        International

 

September Japanese machinery orders declined 4.6% versus consensus of +0.7%.

 

October UK CPI was +2.0% versus forecasts of +1.7%; core CPI was +0.7% versus +0.6%.  

 

                        Other

 

                          Expect anything.

                          https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/11/14/weekly-market-pulse-good-news-bad-news/

 

Economists think inflation will run hotter in 2023 and the economy will run cooler.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-see-us-inflation-running-100000430.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY2FwaXRhbHNwZWN0YXRvci5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKU0BGGtRqXu6CQ9UiRkYNkBeQewR1zKsK6kS4OTi9NeX2lfhGtD_wpUHWqVnzH0ca-ToM5RXe2LKT11DRp0GeAaKMlhmlzcnVdWbG0NLF1nyuwIsiMaVWAVKMGOtAbIu0prqK3KOB0u8pPB7qt_wcroTTIuR2-M4DgykgMmnlch

 

     Bottom line

 

            Guggenheim thinks bonds are getting attractive.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/11/15/fixed-income-sector-views

 

            Morningstar thinks muni bonds look attractive.

            https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1125051/why-municipal-bond-funds-are-worth-a-look

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Nike (NYSE:NKE) declares $0.34/share quarterly dividend, 11.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.30.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Cognitive biases.

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/11/six-degrees-of-separation/

 

 

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