The Morning Call
11/18/22
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-sink-feds-bullard-hammers-pivot-hopes
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 222,000
versus forecasts of 225,000.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_17.html
October housing
starts fell 4.2% versus projections of -2.7%; building permits were off 2.4%
versus -6.3%.
The November
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at -19.4 versus estimates of -6.2.
The November
Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was -10 versus expectations of -15.
International
October Japanese CPI was +0.6% versus predictions
of 0.4%.
October UK retail
sales rose 0.6% versus consensus of +0.3%; ex fuel, they were up 0.3% versus
+0.6%; November consumer confidence was -44 versus -51.
Other
.
The destruction of the middle class (must
read).
Fading supply chain problems signal season of
plenty for holiday shoppers
Mortgage rates are dropping.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/homes/mortgage-rates-november-17
The Fed
Fed pivot watch.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-pivot-watch-17-november-2022/#more-19143
Inflation
Incoherent energy policy worsens inflation
outlook.
Persistently low diesel supplies will continue
to fuel inflation.
Recent study shows that the supply chain is
40% of inflation.
https://ritholtz.com/2022/11/supply-chain-40-inflation/
The inflation regime is entering its second
act.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/regime-shifting-and-heres-what-means
Recession
According to this study, odds of a recession have
increased but are still low.
On the other hand, the yield curve that
matters is predicting a recession.
https://www.axios.com/2022/11/17/yield-curve-that-matters-is-predicting-a-recession-now
Bottom
line
Foreigners still
piling into US bonds.
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/foreigners-still-piling-into-us-dollar-and-bonds/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Williams-Sonoma
press release (NYSE:WSM): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.72 misses by $0.02.
Revenue
of $2.19B (+6.8% Y/Y) beats by $40M.
Home Depot (NYSE:HD) declares $1.90/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous
C.H.
Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW) declares $0.61/share quarterly dividend, 10.9% increase from prior
dividend of $0.55.
What
I am reading today
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