Tuesday, November 15, 2022

The Morning Call---Forecasts for 2023

 

The Morning Call

 

11/15/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/technical-rally-runs-out-gas-despite-dovish-drawl-feds-2

 

            Historically high breadth.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/historically-high-breadth-major-shorter-term-boost-sp

 

            What comes next?

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2022/11/strong-two-day-rally-what-comes-next.html

 

            More charts from last week.

            https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/week-in-charts-11-11-22

 

            Is King Dollar dead?

            https://allstarcharts.com/the-death-of-a-wrecking-ball/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

October consumer inflation expectations came in at +5.9% versus consensus of +5.3%.

 

                        International

 

September Japanese industrial production fell 1.7% versus projections of -1.6%; preliminary Q3 GDP growth was -0.3% versus +0.3%; preliminary Q3 capital expenditures were up 1.5% versus +2.1%; preliminary Q3 private consumption was up 0.3% versus +0.2%.

 

September German PPI was -0.6% versus forecasts of +1.7%; November economic sentiment was -36.7 versus -50.0.

 

September UK unemployment rate was 3.6% versus predictions of  3.5%; September average earnings were up 6.0% versus +5.9%.

 

The September EU trade balance was E-34.4 billion versus expectations of E-44.4 billion; the second estimate of Q3 GDP growth was +0.2% versus +0.3%; November economic sentiment was -38.7 versus -57.2.

 

October Chinese YoY industrial production was up 5.0% versus estimates of +5.2%; October YoY retail sales fell 0.5% versus +0.1%.

 

                        Other

 

                          The latest GDP nowcasts.

                          http://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/the-gdp-outlook-nowcast-vs-forecast

                       

                          China rescues property sector in latest policy shift.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-13/china-plans-property-rescue-as-xi-surprises-with-policy-shifts?sref=loFkkPMQ

                        

                           2023’s economic risks.

 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-11-14/china-fed-rate-hikes-real-estate-here-are-2023-s-economic-       risks?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                           More on the 2023 outlook from Morgan Stanley.

                           https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-streets-biggest-bear-reveals-his-2023-forecast-4150-3000-3900-and-then-boom

 

            Recession

 

              John Mauldin sees recession in our future.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/11/11/recession-thoughts

 

            The coronavirus

           

  Lockdown zealots are incapable of introspection.

  https://brownstone.org/articles/are-lockdown-zealots-incapable-of-introspection/

 

     Bottom line

 

            Move over inflation; here comes the earnings crunch.

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/move-over-inflation-here-comes-the-earnings-crunch-11668300124

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC) declares $0.895/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The enduring mystery of the Dragonfly 44 galaxy.

            https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-enduring-mystery-of-the-dragonfly-44-galaxy-20221107/

 

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