Tuesday, November 30, 2021

The Morning Call---Will the Fed trigger the next financial crisis?

 

The Morning Call

 

11/30/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-big-tech-erase-omicron-fears-bonds-black-gold-buck-less-sure

 

            Technically speaking.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-correction-santa-rally-has-started

 

            Half of this year’s big IPOs are trading below their listing price.

            https://www.ft.com/content/4c68c37b-57ae-47b1-98dd-f4a815b3182d

 

            Does oil know something that equities don’t?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cobgwjuoy8

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          October pending home sales rose 7.5% versus expectations of +0.9%

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/11/29/pending-home-sales-jump-in-october

 

                                    Housing inventory down

                                    https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/11/housing-inventory-nov-29th-update.html

 

The November Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 11.8 versus predictions of 25.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/11/29/november-dallas-fed-manufacturing-expansion-continues-costs-climbs

 

                        International

 

The October Japanese unemployment rate was 2.7% versus estimates of 2.8%; October preliminary industrial production was +1.1% versus +1.8%; October YoY housing starts were up 10.4% versus +2.2%; October YoY construction orders were +2.1% versus +2.0%.

 

The October Chinese manufacturing PMI was 50.1 versus consensus of 49.6; the nonmanufacturing PMI was 52.3 versus 52.0; the general PMI was 52.2 versus 50.5.

 

The October German unemployment rate was 5.3%, in line.

 

The November EU flash CPI was 0.5% versus projections of 0.1%.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

Powell testified before the house yesterday. His comments sounded a bit dovish---which would not be surprising given the Fed’s historic ‘on the one hand (the recent hawkish remarks by other Fed officials), on the other hand (Powell’s comments)’ narrative.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-chair-powell-swings-dovish-blames-omicron-uncertainty

 

              The Fed is too easy but corporate profits look great.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2021/11/the-fed-is-too-easy-but-profits-are.html

 

              El Erian: The Fed should recognize the inflation is not transitory.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-28/el-erian-says-fed-should-recognize-inflation-isn-t-transitory?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              The Fed’s failure.

              https://alephblog.com/2021/11/19/an-estimate-of-the-future/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              A detailed look at the house dem’s budget bill.

              https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/18/upshot/whats-in-democrats-reconciliation-bill.html

 

            The coronavirus

 

              If Fauci were a scientist.

              https://coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2021/11/if-fauci-were-a-scientist.html

 

Top South African doctor says the omicron variant no more harmful than the delta variant.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/top-south-african-doctor-confirms-no-evidence-omicron-variant-more-harmful-delta

 

                          Moderna’s CEO cautions that its vaccine may not work for omicron variant.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/markets-edge-after-moderna-ceo-repeats-vaccine-wont-work-omicron

 

 

    Bottom line

 

            Will the Fed trigger the next financial crisis?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/11/29/could-the-fed-trigger-the-next-financial-crisis

           

            Counterpoint.

            https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/detail/recent-activity/

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) declares CAD 1.00/share quarterly dividend11.1% increase from prior dividend of CAD 0.90.

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of C$2.10 beats by C$0.20; GAAP EPS of C$1.97.

Revenue of C$7.69B (+2.5% Y/Y) misses by C$260M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The insanity continues.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/uk-bureaucrats-abandon-term-christmas-over-fears-it-may-offend-minorities

 

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