Monday Morning Chartology

 

The Morning Call

 

11/29/21

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

           

            Friday’s massacre is on everyone’s mind. As you can see, the S&P fell to near proximity to the lower boundary of its short term uptrend. Until it successfully challenges that level, I see no reason to get squirrely on the Market,

 

            Friday: another buy the dip moment?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cf9zeenb5n

 

 

Early last week the long bond began trending lower (making a new lower low), then

the panic over the Omicron variant abruptly altered TLT’s direction. However, on a technical basis, that huge gap up open on Friday needs to be filled. Once that is done, the question will be, was Friday’s high just a lower high to be followed by a lower low (meaning the very short term downtrend remains intact) or will it rebound and make another higher high?

 

            Last week GLD (1) broke the uptrend off its 9/29 low and (2) challenged both of its DMA’s [the 100 DMA successfully; reset to resistance]. However, it remained strangely quiet in Friday’s chaotic trading, suggesting that while investors may have been panic selling stocks, they were not barreling into gold as a safe haven. A bit surprising to me; but likely indicative that the sellers were the punters and not longer term investors.

 

            The dollar behaved as (technically) one might expect last week,  (1) having overshot the upper boundary of its short term uptrend, it retreated back to within trend, (2) it made a major gap up open on Tuesday which it promptly filled on Friday. So far, so good. However, looking ahead, it must now close the large gap down open on Friday (meaning further upside). The question being, does it do it quickly and again trade above the upper boundary of its short term uptrend or does it trade sideways until it can fill the gap while remaining within the boundaries of its short term uptrend. Either way, I would expect a lot of backing and filling in the near term.

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        Review of Last Week 

 

The stats were overwhelmingly positive last week (1) in aggregate in the US, (2) in the primary indicators in the US [four plus, two minus], and overseas. That’s two weeks in a row for each set of indicators. Two is not enough for a trend to be set, but it is a beginning.

 

In the meantime, my take on the economy remains unchanged---it is struggling to grow, hampered by increasingly irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies, getting no support from the global economy and threatened by seemingly mounting inflationary forces.

 

                        US

                         

                        International

 

                          October Japanese retail sales were up 1.1% versus estimates of -1.0%.

 

November EU consumer confidence fell 6.8%, in line; economic sentiment was 117.5, also in line; industrial sentiment was 14.1 verses 13.9; services sentiment was 18.4 versus 16.1.

 

November German CPI was +5.2% versus consensus of +5.0%.

 

                        Other

                         

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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