The Morning Call----Oooops, Part 3

 

The Morning Call

 

5/14/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            The S&P rallied nicely yesterday, ending right on the lower boundary of its short term uptrend.  That moves the time element of its challenge of that support level out one day---in effect, yesterday’s pin action was a non-event as far as the challenge goes.  So, if the S&P remains below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend through the close on Monday, it will re-set to a trading range.   Whatever happens (1) the ‘buy the dip’ crowd is clearly alive and well, and (2) a lot of investors, at least for now, are buying the Fed’s ‘transitory’ inflation scenario.

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-surge-crypto-crushed-commodity-fever-breaks-lumber-slides-3rd-day

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

April retail sales were flat with March versus forecasts of up 1.0%; ex autos, they fell 0.8% versus +0.7%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-disappoint-april-stimmy-surge-stalls

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

            Inflation

 

              The inflation trilemma.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/05/the-inflation-trilemma.html

 

                  Inflation is here.  Now what?

              https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/13/upshot/inflation-is-here-what-now.html

 

              Another case for inflation being transitory.

              http://blog.yardeni.com/2021/05/reagan-volcker-killed-inflation-will.html

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-splaaat-it-was-kind-report-make-data-great-again

 

              How long is ‘transitory’?

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-12/-transitory-u-s-inflation-pressures-seen-lasting-for-months?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              When do policy makers become concerned?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when-do-policy-makers-become-concerned

 

              Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations survey.

              https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/bie

 

              Markets weigh prospect for new commodities supercycle.

              https://www.ft.com/content/f3650c8f-70a2-4f86-a648-9dc0b4434348

 

    Bottom line.  The problem with making high returns in a low return world.

            https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marks-laments-not-having-great-200242502.html

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The problem with the 4% rule.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/worst-case-scenario-warning-for-retirees-and-the-4-rule-11620840517

 

                Watch these two military recruitment videos to realize how screwed we are.

            https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2021/05/13/army-woke-recruitment-ad-n2589373

 

 

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