The Morning Call
5/20/21
The
Market
Technical
The S&P again ended
below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend; if it remains there through
the close on Friday, it will reset to a trading range. However, it did so on another gap down open---which
has to be filled.
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-crude-crappy-stocks-dumpnpump-dollar-treads-water
Update on margin
debt.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims came in at 444,000
versus expectations of 450,000.
International
March Japanese
machinery orders rose 3.7% versus estimates of +6.4%; its April trade balance
was +Y255.3 billion versus +Y140.0 billion.
April German PPI
was reported at +0.8%, in line.
Other
The surge in economic noise.
http://www.capitalspectator.com/beware-the-surge-in-economic-noise/
But is it noise?
Architecture billings strong in April.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/05/aia-architecture-design-activity.html
The
Fed
The main headline
of the day was the release of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. They show the Fed (1) sees improvement in the
economy, (2) but it is still a long way from meeting the Fed’s objectives, (3)
meanwhile, inflation will be transitory BUT (4) several members did suggest
that talk of tapering should begin soon if the economy continues to grow---so
we are at the stage where the Fed is ‘talking about talking about tapering’.
The Fed is monetizing the federal debt.
Money supply growth slowed in March but is
still increasing at a torrid pace.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/money-supply-growth-finally-slows-march-drops-10-month-low
Inflation
Is a new inflationary era coming? (must read).
https://lawliberty.org/book-review/a-new-inflationary-era/
Is ‘homeowners
equivalent rent’ about to accelerate?
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/05/lawler-is-owners-equivalent-rent-index.html
The
coronavirus
Here is an analysis
that only the doomsayers could love. I
include it not because I agree but to present
a counterpoint. As you read the article,
just substitute ‘flu’ or ‘bad cold’ for ‘covid’ to see how much sense it
makes. No where in the analysis are the
stats on infections/deaths quoted. Nor is
there any discussion of the economic/health casualties that were imposed by the
lockdown. It is one thing if covid =
bubonic plague or Ebola; it is another if covid = a bad case of the flu.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/05/an-indictment-of-us-covid-policy.html
Counterpoint (must
read):
An even better
one.
https://notthebee.com/article/this-10-year-old-completely-demolished-his-school-boards-mask-mandates
Bottom line.
Have a plan.
https://ritholtz.com/2021/05/gut-check/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO): FQ3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.83 beats by $0.01; GAAP EPS
of $0.68 in-line.
Revenue
of $12.8B (+6.8% Y/Y) beats by $230M.
Hormel Foods (NYSE:HRL): FQ2 GAAP EPS of $0.42 beats by $0.01.
Revenue
of $2.61B (+7.9% Y/Y) beats by $200M.
What
I am reading today
Stretching your money in retirement.
https://humbledollar.com/2021/05/work-in-progress/
New pictures of Jupiter.
https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/new-pix-of-jupiter-will-rock-your-very-very-large-world
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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