The Morning Call---Joe, it's not your money.

The Morning Call

 

5/18/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-glows-cryptos-collapse-after-musknado-dollar-bonds-stocks-sink

 

            The correlation between stocks and bonds hit the highest level since 1999.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/correlation-between-stocks-and-bonds-hit-highest-1999

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                       

April housing starts dropped 9.5% versus consensus of -1.3%; building permits were up 0.3%, in line.

 

The May NY Fed manufacturing index came in at 24.3 versus expectations of 23.9.       

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/2021/05/17/empire-state-mfg-survey-continued-growth-in-may

 

                          The May housing market index was reported at 83, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/05/17/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-sentiment-stable-in-may

 

                        International

 

March UK unemployment was 4.9%, in line; average earnings rose 4.0% versus +4.5%.

 

Q1 2^nd estimate Japanese GDP fell 1.3% versus forecasts of -1.2%; capital expenditures was -1.4% versus +1.1%.

 

Q1 2^nd estimate EU GDP declined 0.6%, in line.

 

                        Other

                         

                           It is a recovery, not an expansion.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/05/17/macroview-nfib-data-says-its-only-an-economic-recovery

 

                          The world economy is running low on everything.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-17/inflation-rate-2021-and-shortages-companies-panic-buying-as-supplies-run-short?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Update on seven high frequency economic indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/05/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for_17.html

 

            The Fed

 

              Everything is transitory.

              https://compoundadvisors.com/2021/everything-is-transitory

 

              The Fed’s reasoning on transitory inflation.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-13/fed-leaders-are-confident-inflation-is-transitory-here-s-why?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Stimulating the housing market is psychotic.

              https://thereformedbroker.com/2021/05/17/stimulating-the-housing-market-is-psychotic/

                  

              Northman Trader rips the Fed (must read).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/secretis-out

                  

              Fed Vice chair reiterates QE policy.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-vice-chair-not-enough-progress-start-taper-talk

 

            Biden’s Plan

 

              It’s not your money.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2021/05/17/its_time_for_taxpayers_to_remind_congress_its_not_their_money_777330.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Numbers for the innumerate.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/numbers-for-the-innumerate

 

    Bottom line.

 

            Have a plan.

            https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/05/17/ill-buy-on-the-next-pullback/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Home Depot (NYSE:HD): Q1 GAAP EPS of $3.86 beats by $0.84.

Revenue of $37.5B (+32.7% Y/Y) beats by $3.01B.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Will science survive politics?

            https://unherd.com/2021/05/will-science-survive-politics/

 

 

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