Thursday, July 23, 2020

The Morning Call--In praise of cash

The Morning Call


The Market

The Averages  (26652, 3235) retreated yesterday.  The S&P finished back on its June high while the Dow fell back after just filling its ‘island top’ gap. Volume was flat, breadth was weak and the VIX bounced off its June low.  So, it was a technically disappointing day.  But I am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias is to the upside.
Gold was up another 7/8% on big volume, making another new nine year high.  The long bond was also up (1 ½%), keeping its upward momentum going.  The dollar declined.  All this suggests a weak economy.
            Treasuries poised to test new lows.

            Gold has only one resistance point left.

            Thursday in the charts.



              The Economy


June leading economic indicators were up 2.0% versus expectations of +2.1%

The July Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at 7 versus estimates of 5.


                          July EU consumer confidence was reported at -15 versus forecasts of -12.

                          High frequency indicators point to late June slowdown.

                          The feared jumbo mortgage debacle is here.
                          South Korea falls into recession.

            The Fed

              The Fed already planning its next rescue operation.

              Rethinking asset correlation in the era of QE.

  Global fiscal/monetary policies are creating bubbles everywhere.


              Chinese to shutter a US consulate in retaliation for Houston.

              Pompeo calls for a ‘peoples’ uprising’ in China.

            Bottom line.  In praise of cash.

            The future may not look like the past.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
AT&T (NYSE:T): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.83 beats by $0.04; GAAP EPS of $0.17 misses by $0.38.
Revenue of $40.95B (-9.0% Y/Y) in-line.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT): Q4 GAAP EPS of $1.46 beats by $0.09.
Revenue of $38.03B (+12.8% Y/Y) beats by $1.48B.

W.W. Grainger (NYSE:GWW): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.75 beats by $0.24; GAAP EPS of $2.10 misses by $0.86.
Revenue of $2.84B (-1.7% Y/Y) beats by $70M.

Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.B) declares $0.1743/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

            Shadow lenders are helping to fuel the student loan crisis.
Good things taken too far.

            Why this revolution isn’t like the 60’s.

            This time is different.

            Interview with former Israeli intelligence chief on the recent explosions in Iran.

            John Cleese on political correctness.

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