After touching key resistance levels on Wednesday, the Averages (26734, 3215) fell back yesterday; though only slightly. And given their proximity to overbought territory, it is not surprising. The Dow finished above its 200 DMA for a third day (now resistance; if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to support). A successful challenge would clearly be a positive development. On the other hand, while it filled its ‘island top’ gap intraday Wednesday, it fell back at the close with no follow through yesterday.
Further the S&P looks like it could be forming a double top; not good. Still, there are more pluses than negatives in the indices technical picture. So, I am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias is to the upside---at least until/unless the Averages revert their DMA’s to resistance.
Gold was down, giving the first sign of momentum lost; the long bond was up (no momentum lost there). The dollar was up, bouncing off the lower boundary of its short term trading range. This makes the fourth time that boundary has held. So, clearly there is good support at this level.
Thursday in the charts.
Yesterday was really upbeat in US data land. June industrial production (primary indicator), capacity utilization and retail sales (primary indicator) along with the July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and the July housing index were quite positive. While weekly jobless claims were disappointing and May business inventories were in line.
Beware the coronavirus economy aftermath.
Business cycle indicators as of 7/15.
Expect more bankruptcies in the second half.
Overseas, May UK unemployment and average earnings as well as June Chinese
YoY industrial production, YoY fixed asset investment and Q2 GDP were better than anticipated. On the other hand, June Chinese YoY retail sales were really poor while June unemployment was in line.
Estimates of world GDP lost to the coronavirus.
The media campaign against Sweden.
Powell, Mnuchin and investors---friends forever.
Investing in central bank sedated markets.
As usual, the Chinese were lying.
The bottom line. yesterday’s numbers give the impression of a ‘V’ shaped recovery; but to date, while the stats have been indicated an upturn is in progress, they hardly portray a sharp one. Still, good data is good data; so, I am thankful for what we got. That said, to have ‘V’ there has to be a continual strong advance in the stats; and we don’t have that---at least, not yet.
What we do have is a Fed (global central banks) that have and will likely continue to flood the markets with liquidity. So far, that has had a marginal impact on the economy but has propelled asset prices into the stratosphere. The big question is what happens when the onslaught of bankruptcies starts impacting the Fed’s balance sheet (see above) which contains low grade debt?
Fundamentals do not really matter much (must read).
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
BlackRock : Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $7.85 beats by $0.90; GAAP EPS of $7.85 beats by $1.05.
This Week’s Data
May business inventories fell 2.3%, in line.
June housing starts rose 17.3% versus consensus of up 15.6%; building permits were up 2% versus 6%.
The July housing index came in at 72 versus estimates of 60.
May YoY EU construction output fell 11.9% versus expectations of -23.0%; June CPI came in at 0.3%, in line.
What I am reading today
Astronomers make new discovery in deep space.
Cash remains king.
Adam Smith’s anniversary.
The transgender threat to girls.
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