Tuesday, July 21, 2020

The Morning Call---I am not saying this is a blow off top

The Morning Call


The Market

The Averages  (26840, 3257) closed up again on the day, though well off their intraday highs.  The S&P continued its advance above its June high, indicating a likely challenge of its February all time high (3393).  However, the Dow was still been able to fill its ‘island top’ on a closing basis much less pierce its June high.  Until it does so, it could act as a drag on the S&P.  The VIX turned in a mixed performance.  On the one hand, it ended up on the day (unusual for an up stock day); on the other, it finished below its 200 DMA for a third day; a successful challenge would open the way to filling the February gap up open---support for the S&P.  I am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias is to the upside.

            Watch the VIX.

Gold was up 1 ¼%, making another new nine year high.  The long bond was also up, keeping its upward momentum going.  The dollar declined on big volume, ending below the lower boundary of its short term trading range for a second day (if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to a downtrend).  All this suggests a weak economy.
            Tuesday in the charts.



              The Economy



                          Hourly worker recovery in small businesses.
                          Or not.

                          Declining confidence in Trump’s economic stewardship.

                          May gasoline sales.

            The Fed

              Immaculate deception.  Fed style.

            Fiscal Policy

              EU adopts groundbreaking stimulus package.

              McConnell says no stimulus bill by end of next week.

            Bottom line.  in early June, I suggested that the Market was demonstrating a number of the characteristics of a blow off top.  Not long after, the indices created those ‘island tops’, making it look like I had been prescient.  But it was not so.  However now the S&P is pushing towards its February high with many stocks exhibiting the kind of explosive price action in the face of serious economic problems that once again reminds me of a blow off top.   I am probably wrong again; but, in my opinion, the Market is exhibiting unhealthy behavior.  Invest accordingly.

              Growth versus value.

              Today’s most unpopular investment.

              Mark Cuban warns.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

            How innovation works.

            Innovation in America is under stress.

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