Tuesday, May 6, 2014

The Morning Call--Yesterday's turn around was a plus

The Morning Call

5/6/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16520, S&P 1884) opened down big yesterday, then rallied through the day to close in the plus column.  The good news about this pin action is both Averages made a third higher low and remained above their 50 day moving averages; the bad news is that the Dow still has to overcome a triple top and the S&P hasn’t negated its developing head and shoulders pattern.

The S&P closed within uptrends across all timeframes: short (1824-1951), intermediate (1778-2578) and long (739-1910).  The Dow remains within short (15330-16601) and intermediate (14696-16601) term trading ranges and a long term uptrend (5055-17405).  They continue out of sync in their short and intermediate term trends. 

Volume fell; breadth was mixed.  The VIX was up but remains within its short term trading range, below its 50 day moving average and within its intermediate term downtrend.

            More divergences:

            Expect more volatility (medium):

            The long Treasury was down, but continues to trade within a short term uptrend, above its 50 day moving average and within an intermediate term downtrend.  I have spent a lot of space in this note noodling over the recent unusual performance of bonds.  Here is a reasonable thesis:

            Latest from Bill Gross:
           
            GLD traded up but still ended within short and intermediate term downtrends and below its 50 day moving average.

Bottom line: yesterday’s intraday recovery was noteworthy; on the other hand, neither index has overcome its all-time high and the S&P remains in a developing head and shoulders pattern.  That notwithstanding, the technicals still look like the Averages will challenge the upper boundaries of their long term trading ranges---with the caveat that the long bond is not signaling something that the stock guys (me included) at too stupid to see.

Meanwhile, we have a trendless Market; so there is really not much to do save using any price strength that pushes one of our stocks into its Sell Half Range and to act accordingly.

            Market cycle analysis looks bearish (medium):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s US economic data was tilted to the plus side:  both the April Markit service PMI and the ISM nonmanufacturing index came in positive; though the Markit PMI was slightly below estimates while the ISM index was above consensus.

            Overseas, the numbers once again weren’t nearly as good: the April Chinese PMI was negative, below expectations but not as bad as the March reading; Chinese home sales plunged; the European Commission raised its economic growth outlook but lowered its inflation expectations (dream on); JP Morgan lowered its global PMI forecast. 

And, of course, Ukraine continues in turmoil:

                ***overnight, April EU services PMI showed improvement from March; and this---according to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, first quarter revenue of Chinese firms fell 7%.

Bottom line: in short, the US economy continues to move along with no help from our main trading partners.  Yesterday’s pin action suggested that investors are tiring of Ukraine as an issue.  If the only thing at stake was whose flag flies over the eastern part of the country, I would probably agree.  The one thing that bothers me is the capacity of the current administration to fuck up a foreign crisis (Libya, Syria, Benghazi, Afghanistan).  That doesn’t mean that they will.  I just don’t think that the risk of an act of stupidity that could lead to our public humiliation and/or higher oil prices is as low as the rest of the Market seems to think. 

Furthermore, the recent performance of the bond market is potentially I think a signal that negative developments could be in the offing.  Topping it all off, stocks are, in my opinion, priced for a Goldilocks environment.  I know Goldilocks; and this is no Goldilocks environment.

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.
               
            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            Your home as an investment (short):

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