The Morning Call
5/514
The Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P has had a couple of good weeks, so the pause of the last couple of
trading days is no surprise. Still, it
has not negated the developing head and shoulders nor has it made it to its prior
high. I continue to believe that the
S&P will challenge the upper boundary of its long term uptrend but it will
be a labored effort.
The
long Treasury (112.7) continues to be a stellar performer. It is in a short term uptrend, above its 50
day moving average and is ever closer to the upper boundary (113.7) of that
intermediate term downtrend. As you
know, I am a bit puzzled on what is driving bond prices higher. On Friday, we got a blowout nonfarm payrolls
number (yes, the participation rate remains bothersome) suggesting (1) a
stronger economy and (2) an increased likelihood of the Fed accelerating the
transition to tighter money. In other
words, the perfect scenario for higher interest rates (lower bond prices). And, yet.
GLD
is not an inspiring chart. It remains in
short and intermediate downtrends, below its 50 day moving average and plenty
of room to the downside before hitting the lower boundary of its long term
trading range (blue line).
Borrrrrrrrrrrrrring! VIX continues to be of no help on Market
direction.
More
on ‘sell in May’ (medium):
More
on midterm year seasonal patterns (short):
Update
on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’ (medium):
Fundamental
The
risk trilogy (medium and today’s must read):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
·
Revenue of
$6.08B (+3.6% Y/Y) misses by $130M.
- Chevron (CVX): Q1 EPS of $2.36 misses by $0.11.
- Revenue of $53.26B (-6.3% Y/Y) misses by $1.21B.
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