Monday, May 19, 2014

Monday Morning Chartology---Bulls and bears in a major battle

The Morning Call

5/19/14

The Market
           
    Technical

     Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P touched its all-time high and retreated, then touched its 50 day moving average and bounced.  Meanwhile, the DJIA failed on heavy volume to hold above the upper boundaries of its short/intermediate terms trading ranges; hence it remains in those trading ranges.  It also touched its 50 day moving average and bounced.  Clearly, the bulls and bears are in a major battle.  All we can do is wait for the outcome.

            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’:



            The long Treasury has broken above the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend.  If it remains above this resistance line by the close Wednesday, the intermediate term trend will re-set to up.

            More discussion on the rationale for lower bond rates (medium):




            GLD’s chart is still not pretty.  Notice that it has made a series of lower highs and higher lows.  Typically that means whichever trend line that is broken, the momentum shifts in the direction of the break.  The fact that GLD can’t get over its 50 day moving average suggests the break will be to the downside.



            The VIX is once again toying with the lower boundary of its short term trading range.  A break below this support level would be a plus for stocks.

           


    Fundamental
    
            Update on big four economic indicators:

            Second and third quarter revenue and earnings expectations (medium):

            Investors’ focus on ‘trash’ (medium):

     News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

Politics

  Domestic

  International

            The territorial dispute between China and Vietnam is heating up (medium):

            Global economic growth (short):
            http://blog.yardeni.com/








No comments:

Post a Comment