Thursday, May 1, 2014

Murphy Oil (MUR) 2014 Review

Murphy Oil is a global oil and natural gas exploration and production company in North America, Malaysia and the Congo.  The company has grown dividends and profits at a 12-14% rate over the last ten years earning a 10-15% return on equity.  While the company experiences some cyclicality in demand, it should continue to grow at an above average secular pace because:

(1)   it has one of the best upstream portfolios in the industry,

(2) its broad geographically diversified exploration activity,

(3) the spinoff of its refining and marketing business will improve profitability,

(4) its strong balance sheet allows it to pursue its aggressive capital expenditure program and share buy backs.

 Negatives:

(1) it is in a highly competitive industry

(2) product prices are volatile,

(3) its international exposure subjects it to currency fluctuations and foreign        government regulations,

            MUR is rated A by Value Line, has 22% of its capitalization in debt and its stock yields 2.1%.

Statistical Summary

                 Stock        Dividend       Payout      # Increases  
                 Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2004

MUR         2.1%            7%            27%              9
Ind Ave     2.6                9               28                NA

                Debt/                         EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                 Equity         ROE      Since 2004      Margin       Rating

MUR         22%            10%            3                  7%            A
Ind Ave     21                18             NA                 7              NA
  
     Chart

            Note: MUR stock made good progress off its December 2008 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its July 2008 high (straight red line) and the November trading high (green line).  Long term, the stock is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediate term, it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The Dividend Growth Portfolio owns a 50% in MUR, having Sold Half in 2008.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $33; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $100.

  
  
5/14


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