Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank; BNS) 2014 Review

The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) is Canada’s third largest bank with operations in Canada, the US and 50 foreign countries. BNS has earned a 14-20% return on equity over the last ten years and has grown profits and dividends at a 9-12% pace. While the 2008-2009 financial credit crisis impacted BNS, it weathered the storm much better than most large US banks and should continue to grow earnings and dividends as a result of:

(1) expansion of its broadly diversified global loan portfolio,

(2) acquisitions in the overseas markets,

(3) a very strict cost control program,

 (4) rapid revenue increases in its newly formed wealth management group,

(5) increased banking fees,


Negatives:

(1) a slowdown in the Canadian mortgage market,

(2) increased losses on commercial loans,

(3) margin pressures.

BNS is rated A by Value Line, carries a 18% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 4.2%

    Statistical Summary

                   Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                   Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2004

BNS            4.2%           7%             48%               9
Ind Ave       2.5              11               32                NA 

                 Debt/                         EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                 Equity        ROE       Since 2004      Margin       Rating

BNS          18%           14%            2                 NA*            A
Ind Ave      42             10              NA               NA*           NA

*banks’ income statements don’t provide a Net Margin number

     Chart

            Note: BNS stock made good progress off its March 2009 low, surpassing the downtrend off its October 2007 high (straight red line) and its November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term, it is in an uptrend (blue lines),   Intermediate term, it is also in an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.   The High Yield Portfolio owns a 50% position in BNS.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $31; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $76. 
   


5/14

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